Sports MarketWatch
MLB
Edition
10/21/2008 4PM EST
by The Team at
SportsInsights.com
SportsInsights.com
With the World Series
starting, this will be the last issue of the MLB Edition of Sports MarketWatch.
Stay tuned
for the NBA Edition of Sports MarketWatch next week -- and keep
your eyes on SportsInsights.com for live betting odds and winning betting
strategies!
Welcome to this week's edition of
the Sports MarketWatch – MLB Edition, where the Team at
SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports
marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the
line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about
which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for
upcoming games.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
The MLB Edition of Sports
MarketWatch had a strong day last week, sweeping the two underdog plays.
We're still underwater during the second half of the baseball season -- which
has been difficult for MLB value/dog plays. We typically will win in the
mid-forty percent range in money-line sports -- which yields profits in the long
run. For the entire season, MLB was profitable, with SportsInsights' Square
Plays connecting at a 45% and yielding +36 units.
2008 MLB Games to Watch: 19-37, 33.9%, -11.84 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB World
Series
Notes
Philadelphia Phillies versus Tampa Bay Rays - Series
Odds
Both the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies are strong
teams -- and have shown that they deserve to be in the MLB World Series. It's
nice to see some new talent -- and some of the "smaller markets" represented --
in the playoffs. Let's look at how the teams match up:
|
|
Philadelphia
|
Tampa
Bay
|
Edge |
|
Starting
Pitchers
|
Hamels, Myers and Moyer are good, solid pitchers --
that are perhaps less flashy than TB's big three -- especially Kazmir. However,
Kazmir is a huge name who struggles with high pitch counts and can often last
only around 5-6 innings.
|
Kazmir,
Shields and Garza all have ERA's in the mid-three's -- which is great in the
AL. Kazmir is a young stud who strikes out almost 10 per nine innings. The Ray
big three match up better than the Phil's big three -- although Cole Hamels on
the Phils has been "lights out" in the playoffs.
|
Slight
Edge to Tampa Bay |
|
Closer
|
Brad Lidge
had a huge season, striking out 92 in 69 innings, with a 1.95 ERA. It looks
like he's past the 2005 playoff nightmare with Houston that continued into the
2006 season.
|
The Ray's closer had a 4.5 ERA during the regular
season. Enough said. TB's middle relievers have been good.
|
Big Edge
to Phillies |
|
Offense
|
The Phils
scored 799 runs in the NL without the DH. Normalized to the Al with the DH, the
Phils have the better offense. They also have scary HR power with Ryan Howard
who hasn't even connected for a HR this post-season. Utley and Burrell also hit
more than 30 HRs this season.
|
Tampa Bay scored 774 runs during the regular season
and had a +103 run differential. There has been much talk about TB's young
23-year old slugger Evan Longoria who has hit 6 HRs in the playoffs -- but he
hit just 27 HRs this season (less than the 30 that 3 Phillies starters
hit).
|
Phillies |
|
Media
Attention
|
The
Phillies beat a solid NY Met team the past two seasons. However, much of this
rivalry has revolved around how the Mets choked -- without giving credit to
where credit is due. The Phillies are a well-balanced team with power, starting
pitching -- and now -- a good closer.
|
TB has had a magical run. They overcame a great
comeback from the Red Sox powerhouse -- after beating up on the Red Sox and
Yankees in the tough AL East Division. The media loves the TB story -- and this
might lead to an over-valuation of TB.
|
Value on
Phillies (TB is loved by media; Phillies have done well, but in shadow of
NY) |
|
Playoff
Experience
|
The
Phillies have made the playoffs after tough pennant races each of the past few
years. The core of the Phillies seems hungry.
|
This is the first time in the playoffs for the Rays
and they are making the most of it -- getting to the World
Series.
|
Phillies |
|
Home
Field
|
SportsInsights.com's research shows that home field
in the playoffs is over-rated.
|
Due to the
AL's All-Star game win, TB has home field advantage with a 2-3-2
format.
|
Tampa
Bay |
|
Series Odds
|
Phillies +137
|
The Rays are World Series favorites, at
-142.
|
Edge to Phillies, especially
as Series Underdogs |
If you like to bet on sports futures, we see
value on the Phillies at +137 odds.
Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies (Hamels) versus Tampa Bay
Rays (Kazmir)
The Public and the media loves Tampa Bay. As we noted above,
Scott Kazmir is a young up-and-coming ace pitcher who struck out close to 10 per
nine innings this season. However, he continues to struggle with high pitch
counts and normally pitches only 5 or 6 innings. We'll bet against the media
hype on TB and their young up-and-coming stars -- and take the value on the
under-rated Phillies.
Because Philly starter Cole Hamels has been red-hot during
the playoffs, the line is about even. We would have liked receiving more value
with the visiting Phillies -- but at least early Public money moved the line
from Philly -115 to about even odds. Early bets were landing on TB at a rate of
almost 70%. The line has stabilized at even odds with bets now evenly split.
We like the extra value on the under-rated Phillies, based on the early line
move from the opener.
Lean to Philadelphia Phillies -104 for slight
value.
World Series Plays (19-37, -11.84 units)
- Philadelphia Phillies to win World Series +137
Game One: We lean to Phillies -104
It should be another exciting
weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep
Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We hope you enjoyed the Sports MarketWatch – MLB Edition.
- Enjoy the games!
- The Team at SportsInsights.com