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Pinnacle Pulse
The inside line from PinnacleSports.com
by Simon Noble
2/1/2006 11:45 AM EST
Welcome to the Pinnacle Pulse where the line managers at
PinnacleSports.com look to give you an insider’s view of the point
spread movement on key games each week and provide you with a little
gambling theory to help you find a smarter way to bet courtesy of
Pinnacle Sports.
Super Bowl Betting Prop Tips - Pros, Props, Props
Now that it’s finally Super Bowl week, bettors can celebrate that
they’ll have more betting options on this game than any other all year,
as the one thing that the Super Bowl is known for, is the wide range of
proposition bets offered. At Pinnacle Sportsbook you can bet on
everything from the coin toss and first scoring play of the game, to the
best Super Bowl commercial and first “Maddenism” announcer John Madden
will utter after kickoff.
Although some of these proposition bets seem on the exotic side, they’re
a great way for smaller players to increase their bankroll because the
lines are much more likely to be off. Normally there’s only one person
setting the line instead of at least a dozen separate odds makers who
form the market for a side/total line on pro sports. Therefore when you
wager on a proposition, it’s typically your opinion versus just one odds
maker. If you know more than that one odds maker, you are going to get
the best of it.
Sports books know that propositions are dangerous. The risk of setting a
bad price forces most online sportsbooks to use a 30 or 40-cent line on
props with low wagering limits. At Pinnacle Sports Book, we’re always
looking to offer consistent value to the player which is why we use a 10
or 16-cent line on all of our proposition bets, giving bettors up to 75%
better value on props than other bookmakers.
The biggest mistake that players and odds makers make when evaluating
props is not understanding the difference between the median and the
mean (average). For example, consider this prop from the NFC
Championship game – “Will the first score be more than 24.5 yards?”
During the game, there were scores from distances of 17, 1, 59, 39, 20,
1 and 47 yards. The average (mean) distance was 26.3 yards. If that were
your only analysis, you might think that the price on the “Yes” would be
a favorite, since the average is more than 24.5.
The correct way to analyze many of these types of props is to use the
median. If you list the score lengths in ascending order, the median is
the middle number:
1
1
17
20 (median)
39
47
59
If you knew before the game that there would be these seven scores,
you’d price the “No” knowing the under would hit four out of seven
times, making the no-vig price on the “No” -133 or (-4/3*100). In this
instance, the first scoring play of the game was a 17-yard touchdown
pass from Matt Hasselbeck.
Although this concept is simple and rather obvious, it will pay
dividends to anyone who spends time calculating the median. The median
is useful on all types of props – from “length of first rush” to the
“longest/shortest” props (where you use the median result from games for
the whole season). In fact, there are two straightforward ways to
accurately price these types of props.
First, you’ll want to use as much data as possible. Seattle has played
18 games giving you a much better estimate of a fair mid-point. Then
you’ll want to adjust your data for the opponent. For example, you’ll
want to consider the distribution of scores by the Steelers this season.
You may also want to ignore some data for games that aren’t similar to
the Super Bowl. Sharp bettors might only use Seattle data where the
Seahawks were no more than a 7-point favorite on the assumption that
they won’t get as many long, easy scores as they did against weak
opponents (i.e. Arizona where one game had 8 scores of 23 yards or
more).
In addition to filtering the data, you can “tweak” it as well. Let’s
examine the following Super Bowl prop – “Total pass completions by Matt
Hassleback (over/under 21.5)”. His median on the season is 20, but he
had more completions in games that Seattle lost or won by less than 7
points. Similarly, Pittsburgh allowed more completions in games they
narrowly lost or won outright. If you go on the premise that Seattle
won’t blow out Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XL, it makes sense to adjust the
number of completions for Hasselback upwards. This shouldn’t come as a
surprise because teams don’t usually run on third and long if the
outcome is still in doubt.
Try to apply the ideas above on the proposition wagers currently offered
for internet betting at PinnacleSports.com:
Seattle (+4) v Pittsburgh; ML +176/-186
Every year we deal the Super Bowl, we see the same pattern. Money flows
in continuously for the two weeks prior to the game with fairly balanced
action until the last few days. Around Friday, money begins to pour in
on the favorite. You can adjust your numbers to encourage buy-back from
sharps near game time, but a bookmaker loses a lot of juice trying to
balance the Super Bowl that way. We obviously want balanced action on
the game, but not at the expense of losing too much potential vigorish
as well. As a result, we have built up a sizable Seattle position
anticipating the downpour of late money on the Steelers.
At the start of the week, we were trading Seattle at +3.5. With the
combination of –104 style pricing which offers up to 60% better value on
sides than other bookmakers and our slanting of the price to encourage
Seattle bets, we‘ve taken twice as many bets on the Seahawks as the
Steelers. The sharps have expressed a clear opinion on the Seahawks –
nearly all of the $100,000 limit bets we have taken have been from wise
guys playing Seattle at +3.5 and +4. The Pinnacle Sportsbetting line now
sees the Steelers favored by -4 -109.
Some of the larger professional players are favoring Seattle on the
moneyline as well. Despite our $50,000 moneyline limits, we are taking
many limit bets on the Seahawks. As with the spread, we are deliberately
offering the best price on Seattle to build up a position before the
likely influx of Pittsburgh money on the weekend. The price on the
moneyline at current trading is Seattle +176 and Pittsburgh -186.
Bettis (PIT) Score a Rushing TD? (Yes –171)
This is an example of a difficult-to-price proposition. Bettis has
scored TDs in 7 of the last 8 games, including all three playoff games.
Before that, he only had TDs in 2 out of 10 games. When a player behaves
differently in different parts of the season, it’s dangerous to price
these props. Despite missing the first three games of the season due to
injury, he now has as many rushing TDs (12) as the rest of his team
combined.
We initially opened the yes at –140, and took balanced action. The
public clearly favors the yes, while the no is backed by several of our
professional prop players. Prop players find Super Bowl props especially
lucrative, as public money often drives the price off the fair number.
This allows the pros to get multiple limit bets at a good price, instead
of just one bet on more obscure props the public doesn’t bet.
Hassleback Completions Under 21.5 (–130)
We opened the number at under 21.5 (–116) and saw moderate two-way
action. Many propositions like this one are correlated to the game
result. If Seattle takes a large lead or plays a close game, players
find value in the under as the Seahawks would attempt fewer passes. If
the game line of +4 is off (as many sharps believe), then many other
prop numbers will be off as well. In a Seattle win or blowout, you’d
expect less passes and completions from Hasselback and more rushing
attempts and yards from Alexander.
JOIN PINNACLE SPORTSBOOK TODAY AND RECEIVE -104 JUICE FOR ALL YOUR NFL
BETTING ONLINE HERE
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving
customers in more than 80 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998,
PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin
wagering using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better
value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet
requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web,
PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for
providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service
and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao
and the United Kingdom, the company offers a secure environment for
sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
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