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Pinnacle Pulse
The inside line from PinnacleSports.com
by Simon Noble
12/14/2005 11:21PM EST
Welcome to the Pinnacle Pulse where the line managers at
PinnacleSports.com look to give you an insider’s view of the point
spread movement on key games each week and provide you with a little
gambling theory to help you find a smarter way to bet courtesy of
Pinnacle Sports.
Bad Weather
With only 3 weeks left in the regular season, there are new factors
to consider when handicapping your games at this time of the year. How
will weather affect the games? How does the end of season affect home
field advantage?
In very bad weather conditions including heavy snow, driving rain or
high winds, offenses have trouble throwing deep with accuracy.
Consequently, they often rely on running the ball more while avoiding
long passes. Defenses are also aware of the difficulty in the passing
game, and can utilize formations and schemes that are stronger against
the run and short to mid-range passes.
At Pinnacle Sportsbook, we see the effect of the offensive and defensive
adjustments as twofold: there are fewer total plays in the game due to
fewer clock stoppages, and there are fewer first downs as defenses are
not spread as thin. These taken together can make a game total plummet.
A less obvious effect of foul weather is on games with large spreads.
If you have a 14-point favorite in a game with a total of 42, you
“expect” the score to be 28-14. If a blizzard sweeps through an outdoor
stadium and lowers the total to 35, you expect each team to score about
17% less than under normal conditions. While the public is quick to jump
on the total, at Pinnacle Sports book we’ve found that they are much
slower to jump on an under-priced dog getting 14 points instead of 11 or
12. Remember, the lower the total, the more valuable points become (both
for sides and teasers).
Another area to consider in games played in bad weather is a team’s
particular strengths and weaknesses. Teams with exceptional running
attacks and run defenses are at less of a disadvantage (or even at an
advantage) in games where the run is forced. On the other hand, teams
relying on the passing game will suffer more. Your ideal weather play
would be a big dog that runs the ball well, against a favorite that
relies heavily on passing.
In addition to extreme weather, there is another end-of-season factor:
inflated home field advantages. We all know that teams do better at home
- winning about 59% of all games with a median margin of victory of 3.
What a lot of people don’t realize is that the advantage changes during
the season, peaking during the final 4 weeks.
Calculating the home field advantage is simple if you have a database.
You simply add up the points scored by home teams, subtract points
scored by visitors and divide by the number of games played. If you did
that from 1994-2004, you will see that the home field advantage is about
2.5 points per game. In the last 4 weeks in each of those years, this
number goes up to 3.6 points per game. The moral of the story is that
teams want to win at home near the season’s end no matter how good or
bad they are.
It’s worth remembering these concepts towards the end of the regular
season when weather and home field advantage are often factors for
consideration. To see if there are any games that fit these criteria
this week, you can view all of our live Pinnacle Sports betting lines at
www.pinnaclesports.com. You will also find updated wagering lines on the
games listed below where we have already seen some interesting line
movement this week.
New York Jets (+9) at Miami
After winning 3 straight games, the 6-7 Dolphins are still
mathematically in the playoff hunt. If they win out against the Jets,
Tennessee and New England and the Patriots lose their last 3 games to
Tampa Bay, the Jets and Miami, the Dolphins would make the playoffs by
winning the AFC East. There are some other unusual situations where
Miami could receive a wild card, but those require some rather
convoluted analysis better saved for others.
Our opener of Miami -7.5 was greeted by a flurry of sharps. The early
players laid the 7.5 and 8, or even sold down to -9 +110. The combined
pressure of early sharp money and teaser exposure on a low-totalled
game, has forced us to move aggressively on this match up.
Pittsburgh (-3) at Minnesota
Minnesota doesn’t seem to get much respect these days. Despite winning 6
straight games and being in the midst of the playoff hunt, statistics
betray them. They are the only team with a winning record that has more
points allowed (286) than points scored (246). In 8 wins, the Vikings
have only beaten one team with a winning record.
We opened this game at -2.5 -116. A wide variety of sharps took
Pittsburgh at this opener and backed them all the way up to -3 -105 and
-2 -137. So far, this has been one of our highest volume games on the
card.
Arkansas St. (+17) v. So. Mississippi (New Orleans Bowl)
The New Orleans Bowl kicks off the bowl season in Lafayette, LA. due to
Hurricane Katrina. Both Arkansas St. and Southern Mississippi finished
at 6-5 on the regular season. The Golden Eagles became bowl eligible
thanks to tiebreakers after being in a 3-way tie to win Conference USA.
Likewise, the Indians advanced on tiebreakers after splitting the Sun
Belt conference championship 3 ways.
Arkansas St. was a Div I-AA team from 1982-1991 and this season has been
a year of achievement for their football program. Since stepping up to
Div-I, their only other winning season came in 1995. At 6-5, they are
ecstatic to make their first Div-I postseason appearance since the 1970
Pecan Bowl.
We opened this game at -17 flat. While the sharps have mostly stayed off
this game, the public have a slight preference for Southern Miss. We
were slowly accumulating a position on the Golden Eagles as we gradually
raised the price. Offering Arkansas St. at +100 and +101 was just cheap
enough to balance our position.
Boston College (-1) vs. Boise St (MPC Computers Bowl)
Boise St. is playing in its 4th Computers Bowl and the Broncos have won
all 3 of their prior appearances. The Boise St. Broncos - famous for
their blue turf - will have home field advantage in this match-up. No
team wants to play on the blue against Boise St. and for good reason.
The Broncos have won 30 consecutive games at home, a streak which began
on September 22, 2001.
We initially opened this game at Boston College +3 a week ago and saw
moderate volume of mainly public money on the underdog. Although there
were a few sharps on Boston College, a majority of them seem to favor
Boise St. at +1 -108 to +2 -110.
Arsenal +114 vs. Chelsea
We see some interesting things on our reduced margin soccer betting on
the English Premiership each week. All our reduced margin soccer games
use a 4-cent line, so this game opened at -128/+124. We use pretty
standard openers, but we’re the first to put them up each week and tend
to see a lot of movement in the line.
A recurring theme we see at Pinnacle Sports is that other markets – most
notably Asia - open close to our opener and then move substantially
towards our current price on the day of the game. If you find a reduced
margin game that has moved 25 cents at Pinnacle Sports book, it would
probably be profitable to follow the “Pinnacle Lean” when the larger
markets open.
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About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving
customers in more than 80 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998,
PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin
wagering using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better
value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet
requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web,
PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for
providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service
and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao
and the United Kingdom, the company offers a secure environment for
sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
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