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Pinnacle Pulse
The inside line from PinnacleSports.com
by Simon Noble
11/23/2005 2:26PM EST
Welcome to the Pinnacle Pulse where the line managers at
PinnacleSports.com look to give you an insider’s view of the point
spread movement on key games each week and provide you with a little
gambling theory to help you find a smarter way to bet courtesy of
Pinnacle Sports.
Year of the Square
A quick and dirty definition of a "Square" or public bettor is one that
likes to play the favorite at any price. For these bettors, 2005 has
been a good season. On the year, if you played every favorite against
the spread you would have gone an impressive 85-66-4. If you played them
straight-up on the moneyline, you would be hitting at a monstrous 114-40
clip (compared to an expectation of about 100-50). Underdog bettors
finally had a winning weekend last week going 9-7 ATS, but this has been
of little consolation.
In all my years of bookmaking, I cannot remember a single year where
public bettors following the favorites cleaned up like this. There were
plenty of years when dog players did well. In fact, that used to be a
basic betting strategy – bet on any team that is "bad". So what
happened? Where did all the good dogs go?
One possible explanation is that the sports betting market has finally
become efficient. In the early years of sports betting, most of the bets
placed were by recreational players and even large bettors were fairly
unsophisticated. A vast majority of bets were on favorites and overs no
matter what the line. Linesmakers could set the odds on "feel" and would
not worry too much about how accurate they were as most players were
winning fewer than 50% of their wagers betting inflated lines.
The betting markets had a reality check in 1984 with the beginning of
the first well-funded computer group. Billy Walter's group was the first
to blast the markets with statistically driven computer models. Although
its members eventually went their separate ways, it gave others a proven
way to beat sports – the computer.
Since that time, the Internet has revolutionized sports betting in
several ways. First, the ease that you can place a bet on the Internet
has created a true market in sports betting. For instance, at Pinnacle
Sports you can bet online for as little as a dollar up to $30,000 on a
football game and pay 60% less vigorish on NFL sides than at other
bookmakers. As the sports betting world behaves more like an efficient
market, a book that offers a price that is off-market will absorb a huge
position.
Second, the Internet has made information far more accessible to
bettors. Both updated team news and gambling methodology has become far
more prevalent with knowledge shared. In fact, it’s now much easier to
obtain detailed information on a sports team than on most blue-chip
stocks. As a result, we are seeing more and more small computer groups
(many led by former stock traders) coming forward and betting their
numbers.
Perhaps the biggest effect of the new sports betting market is that "Joe
Square" now has a fighting chance to win. He can play his favorites and
overs at will, knowing that the computer groups are keeping the numbers
honest. Perhaps the influence of sharp money is so strong that the
market has now over adjusted? Are favorites now under priced? If you
were playing the underdogs this year, you would certainly think so.
Consider the Indianapolis Colts who’ve been an amazing football
investment at 7-3 ATS this year. When the Colts cover the number, it's
usually not even close. If you bet Indy every game this year and gave up
an extra 2 points they would still be 7-3 ATS. Are the Colts
under-priced? If you think they are, you can leverage your opinion by
backing the Colts and ‘selling’ half-points to receive a larger payoff.
At Pinnacle Sports, we allow bettors to adjust the spread on any NFL
game with our drop-down point spread menu. For example, the price on the
Carolina Panthers is -4 -104 versus the Bills. If your analysis suggests
that the Panthers should crush the Bills, you could lay more points at a
better price: -4.5 at +100, -5 at +104, or -5.5 at +108. Sell three
half-points and Pinnacle Sports is paying juice to you on nearly any
game on the card!
Another time you might want to use point buying/selling is when the
market price on a game has moved, but a sports book or your local bookie
is slow to change the number. Any time a spread or total has moved at
least 1.5 points you can scalp that number with Pinnacle Sports. There
may even be scalping opportunities against your regular book available
now on our featured games below where we’ve seen some early line
movement.
Florida State (+4.5) at Florida
FSU is coming off consecutive losses against NC State and Clemson. After
averaging 40 points per contest in their first seven games, they’ve
scored 15 points or less in the last two. In those two match-ups, the
Seminoles managed just 259 total net passing yards while throwing five
interceptions and allowing nine sacks. The Gators are also coming off a
30-22 loss to South Carolina in a lackluster performance where they were
penalized eleven times.
We opened this game at Florida -6 and took nearly all dog money as
Florida State bettors outnumbered the favorite backers by a ratio of 4
to 1. Some of our sharper players took the Seminoles, driving down on
the price to FSU +4.5 -112.
Texas (-27) at Texas A&M
The Longhorns at 10-0 have only had one tough game this year when they
beat Ohio State by 3. Since then, they’ve won by an average of more than
37 points per game and are just two wins away from a Rose Bowl berth.
The Aggies are headed in the opposite direction having dropped three
straight - with each loss by an average of 24 points – and haven’t
defeated the Longhorns since 1999.
This is a classic betting match-up between the sharps and the public. We
opened this game at Texas -26 and received four times as many wagers on
the Longhorns as on A&M. The outnumbered sharp players like the Aggies
and are betting far higher amounts on the game than the average public
bettor.
New England (+3) at Kansas City
Priest who? Kansas City has nearly forgotten about the injury to
starting RB Priest Holmes with the solid performance of Larry Johnson,
who rushed for 211 yards on 36 carries last week. New England will be a
tougher test for Johnson as the Pats allow only 3.9 yards per rushing
attempt (14th in NFL). New England's real weakness is its pass defense,
where they rank 31st.
We opened with Patriots +3 -120 and have seen moderate two-way action.
The sharps however are not in agreement and we’ve seen sharp money show
for both sides. Curiously, some of our sharper players are taking Kansas
City and selling down to -3.5 +118.
San Diego at Washington O/U 43
Drew Brees has led the second-ranked scoring offense in the NFL to an
average of 30 points per game, whereas Washington is in the middle of
the pack scoring 20 points per game. Both teams are average defensively,
allowing 20 points per game. With this information alone, you might be
inclined to lean on the over, but both teams are above-average rushing
teams. In a game like this, a lot of rushing could decrease the number
of offensive possessions for each team — perhaps to only 11 possessions
each, instead of a more typical 12.
We opened the total at 44 and received fairly balanced action from the
public. The price has drifted down, but we’ve had no real guidance from
our sharper players and our number remains based on a market price of
43-43.5.
JOIN PINNACLE SPORTSBOOK TODAY AND RECEIVE -104 JUICE FOR ALL YOUR NFL
BETTING ONLINE HERE
About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving
customers in more than 80 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998,
PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin
wagering using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better
value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet
requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web,
PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for
providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service
and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao
and the United Kingdom, the company offers a secure environment for
sports betting, racing and casino gaming.
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