With their 41-28 beat down of the Texans yesterday, Tom Brady became the winningest quarterback in postseason history and the New England Patriots set up yet another showdown with the Baltimore Ravens. These two teams have a storied history and their matchups over the past few years have made for must-see television. In January of 2010, the…
The Broncos lead the Ravens 21-17. Peyton Manning faces a key third down when the referee blows his whistle and it’s time for another TV timeout. It’s the end of the third quarter and if you are watching your Live Odds page, you will start to see numbers pop up all over the screen. While…
You hear it all the time. When the weather gets cold, NFL teams have to be able to win low-scoring games with a good running attack and a defense that can make key stops. With below-freezing temperatures expected Saturday in Denver, talking heads and NFL “experts” have already begun analyzing how the chilly weather will…
After a thrilling slate of Week 17 action, our playoff picture is set and there is no shortage of surprises. Both Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson rebounded from potential career-ending injuries to lead their teams into the postseason. Three rookie quarterbacks were able to defy the odds and earn playoff berths. The Texans — who…
In 2003, Richard Borghesi published a paper called, “Price Predictability: Insights from the NFL Point Spread Market.” In this paper, Borghesi analyzed Week 15 through the playoffs from 1981-2000 and found that, after Week 14, there is increased value in NFL betting when isolating large, home underdogs. Last season, we updated this analysis to see…
Starting this season, the NFL schedule included Thursday Night Football games every week for the first time in league history. In reaction, we analyzed the history of games played on Thursday night in order to find profitable trends that we could apply going forward. Our hypothesis was that short weeks of preparation gave home teams…
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