Who Will be the NFL’s Top Scoring Team In 2014-15?

We frequently examine and analyze various proposition bets from offshore sportsbooks, but it’s not every day that we see something truly unique. However, earlier this week BetOnline posted a prop regarding the total points scored for all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming season. For each team there are three options, all with plus money. The actual point totals vary for each team, but the moneylines are the same for the over (+175), a fifty point middle range (+160), and the under (+175).

According to oddsmakers, the top scoring teams are expected to be (in order): Denver, New England and New Orleans followed by a three-team tie between Philadelphia, Seattle and San Francisco. At the other end of the spectrum Oakland, Jacksonville and Cleveland are expected to be the three worst offenses in football followed by a tie between Tampa Bay and the New York Jets.

The table below displays the 2014-15 point totals for each team along with their scoring output from the past season. It will be interesting to see if any additional sportsbooks post this prop bet, but if they do rest assured that we will be quick to add them.

Team
Over (+175)
Range (+160)
Under (+175)
2013-14 Points
Denver Broncos 495.5 446 to 495 445.5 606
New England Patriots 484.5 435 to 484 434.5 444
New Orleans Saints 464.5 415 to 464 414.5 414
Philadelphia Eagles 449.5 400 to 449 399.5 442
Seattle Seahawks 449.5 400 to 449 399.5 417
San Francisco 49ers 449.5 400 to 449 399.5 406
Green Bay Packers 445.5 396 to 445 395.5 417
Indianapolis Colts 430.5 381 to 430 380.5 391
Dallas Cowboys 424.5 375 to 424 374.5 439
Chicago Bears 424.5 375 to 424 374.5 445
Detroit Lions 414.5 365 to 414 364.5 395
Cincinnati Bengals 409.5 360 to 409 359.5 430
Atlanta Falcons 409.5 360 to 409 359.5 353
Kansas City Chiefs 404.5 355 to 404 354.5 430
Baltimore Ravens 395.5 346 to 395 345.5 320
Pittsburgh Steelers 389.5 340 to 389 339.5 379
Minnesota Vikings 389.5 340 to 389 339.5 391
San Diego Chargers 389.5 340 to 389 339.5 396
Arizona Cardinals 384.5 335 to 384 334.5 379
Washington Redskins 384.5 335 to 384 334.5 334
Carolina Panthers 384.5 335 to 384 334.5 366
New York Giants 379.5 330 to 379 329.5 294
Miami Dolphins 374.5 325 to 374 324.5 317
Tennessee Titans 369.5 320 to 369 319.5 362
St. Louis Rams 369.5 320 to 369 319.5 348
Houston Texans 364.5 315 to 364 314.5 276
Buffalo Bills 364.5 315 to 364 314.5 339
New York Jets 354.5 305 to 354 304.5 290
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 354.5 305 to 304.5 304.5 288
Cleveland Browns 335.5 286 to 335 285.5 308
Jacksonville Jaguars 324.5 275 to 324 274.5 247
Oakland Raiders 314.5 265 to 314 264.5 322

It’s interesting to see that bettors can get +175 on over 495.5 points for the Denver Broncos considering the team scored 606 points last season — a 110.5 point difference. Although they lost WR Eric Decker and RB Knowshon Moreno over the off-season, they added former Steelers receiver Emmanuel Sanders and will hand the reigns over to 2013 2nd-round pick Montee Ball in the backfield. It will be interesting to see if the Broncos offense regresses to the extent that oddsmakers are projecting.

Bettors should also be familiar with the implied betting odds as a +175 moneyline correlates to an implied probability of 36.36% and +160 equates to an implied probability of 38.46%. If you add those three percentages together (38.46 + 36.36 + 36.36) you get 111.18. That works out to a fairly reasonable 11-cent juice which is definitely less than many prop bets.

Do you agree that Denver will once again have the league’s top offense? Are there any bets here that you think are offering value? Please leave any opinions in the comment section below.

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