Where Will Carmelo Anthony Play Next Season?

Last month we posted the odds on which team LeBron James would play for next season. Although oddsmakers initially listed the Miami Heat as the heavy favorite to retain LeBron’s services, the tide has shifted and the Cleveland Cavaliers have emerged as the new front runner. But where do oddsmakers believe the second biggest free agent will be playing next season?

Last season the 6’8″ Anthony averaged 27.4 points, 3.1 assists and a career-high 8.1 rebounds per game but has decided to opt out of his contract and test the free-agent market.

Several weeks ago, two prominent offshore sportsbooks posted odds for which team would sign the dynamic scorer and there was certainly a significant difference of opinion. The table below displays the initial odds for several teams to sign Carmelo Anthony at Sportsbook.com and Bovada along with the corresponding implied probabilities.

Updated 6/28/14 at 11:30 am ET

Team
Sportsbook (6/28)
Sportsbook (6/24)
Before Opt Out (Sportsbook)
Bovada (6/24)
Bovada (6/28)
Bovada Implied Odds
New York Knicks -120 +240 +110 +400 +190 34.48%
Chicago Bulls +110 -300 +120 -200 +100 50.00%
Miami Heat +600 +800 +900 +500 +500 16.67%
Houston Rockets +750 +800 +450 +750 +600 14.29%
Dallas Mavericks +1200 +1500 +1000 +2000 +1000 9.09%
Los Angeles Lakers +2000 +1500 +2000 +1500 +1500 6.25%
Los Angeles Clippers +3000 +3000 +2000 N/A N/A N/A
Atlanta Hawks N/A N/A N/A +2000 N/A N/A
Boston Celtics N/A +2500 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Brooklyn Nets N/A N/A +2000 N/A N/A N/A

Now you may notice right off the bat that neither of these implied probabilities add up to 100%. In fact, if you add up the implied odds at Bovada you’ll get 130% which is equal to a fairly high 30-cent juice. With that said, we would always recommend shopping for the best line before placing any bet.


Sportsbook.com initally offered the Los Angeles Clippers (30/1) and Boston Celtics (25/1) as potential landing spots for Carmelo while Bovada did not have odds listed for either of those teams. It was also noteworthy that early on Tuesday (6/24) morning, the Knicks were not listed as a potential destination for Carmelo although that situation was quickly remedied and the Knicks re-opened at +400.

Since then the Knicks have made a major trade, dealing Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton to the Dallas Mavericks for Jose Calderon, Shane Larkin, Samuel Dalembert and two 2nd round draft picks. With this added salary cap flexibility, New York seems better positioned to retain Carmelo and the Knicks odds jumped from +400 to +190 at Bovada and from +240 to -120 at Sportsbook.com.

For those wondering, the Knicks would be able to retain Carmelo despite being over the salary cap due to Bird Rights which allow teams to retain their own players even if they’re over the cap.

It’s interesting to note that for several weeks all major sportsbooks took this prop bet off the board, but early on Thursday (7/10) morning 5Dimes posted their odds with the Knicks listed as major favorites to re-sign Carmelo.

Interestingly, the New York Daily News reported that Carmelo would accept the Knicks offer for a max contract on Wednesday (7/9). Despite this report, 5Dimes is still offering this prop bet — although the limits are quite low.

Do you think there’s any chance Carmelo leaves New York? Could the Heat or Lakers still make a run? Please leave your comments in the section below.

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