Who is the Public Betting on in the Final Four?

The Louisville Cardinals, currently listed at +1020 to win the National Championship (at Pinnacle), are the clear underdog of the Final Four. However, they have the best ATS record at 8-0 in postseason tournament play (including Big East tournament).

They are following in the footsteps of last year’s champion and fellow Big East team Connecticut Huskies, who went on an incredible 10-1 ATS streak to win the title. Connecticut, then a #3 seed, and Louisville now a #4 seed, will both have faced Kentucky in the Final Four.

The Huskies beat Kentucky 56-55 last year as a 2-point underdog, but Louisville will have a tougher test as Kentucky is favored by 8.5 points. Despite the impressive ATS record Louisville has achieved this postseason, the public is still relatively split for Saturday’s game vs. Kentucky, as was the case last season between Connecticut and Kentucky.

The table below breaks down the college basketball betting trends for these two games.

Season Team Betting Percentage
2011 Final Four Kentucky 42%
Connecticut 58%
2012 Final Four Louisville 53%
Kentucky 47%

Surprisingly, the public betting for Saturday’s second Final Four matchup between Ohio State and Kansas is almost identical to the Louisville/Kentucky contest.

As you can see in the table below, the spread betting is very balanced for both games, keeping the lines stable since opening.

Teams Betting Percentage Current Line Open Line
Louisville 53% +8.5 +8.5
Kentucky 47% -8.5 -8.5
Ohio State 54% -2.5 -2.5
Kansas 46% +2.5 +2.5

* All betting percentages represent Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends data.
** Spreads used represent CRIS’ opening and current lines.

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