Since 2004, there have been three NCAA Tournament Championship Games in which one team received greater than 60% of spread bets. In all three instances, the public favorite did not cover the spread.
The following table shows a breakdown of these games:
* Betting Percentages represent Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends.
** Closing lines represent spreads from Pinnacle.
As you can see, when the betting public loaded up on one team (which we define as more than 60% of spread bets), the other side covered the spread in each game.
At the time of publication, Kentucky is receiving 68% of spread bets as a 6-point favorite. Considering our betting trends analysis, Kansas is the side you should consider in tonight’s National Championship game.