Think Betting on Kentucky is a Slam Dunk? Think Again…

Since 2004, there have been three NCAA Tournament Championship Games in which one team received greater than 60% of spread bets. In all three instances, the public favorite did not cover the spread.

The following table shows a breakdown of these games:

Year Teams Bet
Percentage*
Closing
Line**
Score
2004 Connecticut 38% -5.5 82
Georgia Tech 62% 5.5 73
2008 Kansas 35% +1.5 75
Memphis 65% -1.5 68
2011 Connecticut 38% -3 53
Butler 62% +3 41
2012 Kansas 32% +6 n/a
Kentucky 68% -6 n/a

* Betting Percentages represent Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends.
** Closing lines represent spreads from Pinnacle.

As you can see, when the betting public loaded up on one team (which we define as more than 60% of spread bets), the other side covered the spread in each game.

At the time of publication, Kentucky is receiving 68% of spread bets as a 6-point favorite. Considering our betting trends analysis, Kansas is the side you should consider in tonight’s National Championship game.

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