Snippet on NFL Bye Weeks (Eagles)

Some of the following was heard on a local Philly sports radio show — but you know what they say: “Don’t believe everything you hear.”  However, based on what we heard last week — keep your eye on the Philadelphia Eagles this coming weekend (Nov 7th) — because they are coming off of a “bye week.”

The Eagles’ coach, at the start of the Eagles’ “bye-week” — said that he uses the time off to:

  • prepare for the next game,
  • evaluate his own performance, and
  • evaluate his players and team.

The sports radio commentator noted that the Eagles are 11-0 coming off of bye-weeks in recent history.  Note that this is not against the spread, but may be a good source of value this week.

NOTE, however, that a quick back-of-the-envelope analysis we did a few years back showed that teams coming off of bye-weeks were an “expected” .500 ATS — so we believe that all coaches/teams are not “created equal” in terms of this angle.

Also note that the Eagles look to be facing a stiff challenge in the form of the Indianapolis Colts.  Currently, almost 75% of the bets are taking the Colts, so perhaps there will be some contrarian value backing the “bye week” angle.

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