Where is Sharp Money Falling in the 2014 BCS Championship Game?

Line Movement/ATS Records

Opening Line at Pinnacle: FSU -9.5, Total 64

Current Line at Pinnacle: FSU -10, Total 68

2013-14 ATS Records: FSU 11-2 (+8.16 units), Auburn 11-2 (+8.16 units)

BCS Championship Futures via Bovada

BCS Title Odds at Bovada
Auburn
Florida State
1/8/13 200:1 14:1
5/21/13 150:1 28:1
9/18/13 150:1 12:1
9/24/13 200:1 12:1
11/10/13 50:1 2:1
12/1/13 5:1 1:3
1/6/14 3:1 1:4

While Auburn and Florida State finished tied among the top college football teams ATS last year, their roads to the 2014 BCS Championship Game were vastly different. FSU was one of the early favorites to win the 2014 BCS title last January while Auburn was coming off a poor 2012-13 season in which they finished 3-9 and fired head coach Gene Chizik. Though Auburn was a long shot to even be in this game, a victory would give those holding futures tickets a big payday.

Pinnacle opened Florida State at -9.5 and quickly moved to -8.5, mostly due to public betting. The line remained at -8.5 for nearly a month until money poured in on the Seminoles, pushing them to -10.5 before settling in at the current number of -10.

The combination of our College Football Betting Trends data and line movement indicate that, so far, sharp money jumped on Florida State, pushing the point spread to -10 and -10.5 across the sports betting marketplace.

The following Tweets from David Purdum (@DavidPurdum) also highlight the big money that Vegas casinos have taken on Florida State:

purdum2purdum1

 

Below is a snippet of the Line History at Pinnacle, where FSU opened -9.5, moved to -8.5, and then back up to the current line of -10.  As you can see, the majority of bets (>60%) have been on Auburn since the game opened, but the line move on Florida State has balanced them out.

 

LineHistory1

 

Which side do you like in the BCS Championship game? Or, are you looking at the total (O/U) instead? We invite you to leave your thoughts regarding the 2014 BCS Championship in the comments section below.

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8 comments on “Where is Sharp Money Falling in the 2014 BCS Championship Game?
  1. I believe Auburn will come out on top…Although their secondary isn’t the best their punishing defensive line will make FS quarterback hurry up a lot and his long passes may not be that accurate. Auburn will have to give up a lot of short passes but because they change players every 3-5 downs they will own the 3rd and 4th quarters and if they aren’t too far behind they will overcome like they always do. FS defense is good but Auburn’s multifaceted option along with the frequent change-out of players and hurry-up will break FS defense down and leave them in distress by the end of each half…

  2. Honest question: How can it be considered the “sharp” money or “smart” money if they’re taking FSU -10.5 today when they could have bet yesterday or the day before and given only 8.5 points? Is the probability that FSU wins by exactly 9 or 10 really so small that it is dominated by the use of the money for one or two extra days?

  3. When it comes to percentages in betting trends, are percentages figured by money or number of placed bets? For instance, if 4 people bet $100 on a favorite but 1 person bet $400 on the dog of that same game would the betting trend percentage be 50/50 or 80/20? Thanks!

    • Our betting percentages are based on the number of bets placed at our seven contributing sportsbooks: Sportsbook.com, BetUs, Carib, GT Bets, 5Dimes, SIA and CRIS. In your example, with four bets coming down on Team A and one bet coming down on Team B, we would display Team A with 80% of spread bets.

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