NFL 80/20 Betting System 11-5 (68.8%) this Season

As part of our Bet Sharp series of articles, we previously highlighted the 80/20 Rule in regards to NFL betting.

The 80/20 NFL Rule refers to games where a home underdog is receiving 20% or fewer of spread bets (using Sports Insights’ NFL Betting Trends Data).

Our original article showed that through October 24 this NFL season, 12 games fit into the 80/20 system. The home underdogs finished 8-3-1 against the spread (ATS), for a winning percentage of 72.7%.

Since publishing the article, five more games have fallen into the 80/20 level, with the home underdog going 3-2 (60%) against the spread. The table below shows a breakdown of these games:

Date Team Spread % Closing Line Score Result ATS
10/30/11 Saints 83% -13.5 21 Win
Rams 17% +13.5 31
11/06/11 Falcons 84% -6.5 31 Loss
Colts 16% +6.5 7
11/13/11 Ravens 83% -7 17 Win
Seahawks 17% +7 22
11/27/11 Panthers 81% -3.5 27 Loss
Colts 19% +3.5 19
12/04/11 Cowboys 80% -4 13 Win
Cardinals 20% +4 19

For the season, home underdogs that fit into the 80/20 NFL Rule are 11-5 (68.8%) against the spread.

Update: There are two Week 14 NFL games that fit this strategy, note how the Titans now fall out of this system:

Team Spread % Current Line * Open Line *
Saints 74% -3.5 -3.5
Titans 26% +3.5 +3.5
Patriots 84% -8 -9 (+100)
Redskins 16% +8 +9 (-120)
49ers 82% -3.5 (-105) -4
Cardinals 18% +3.5 (-115) +4

* Olympic was used for Open and Current Lines

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