NCAA Football Opening Line Report – Week 5

The opening lines are out for this coming week’s games, and here is an early look at the college football sports marketplace.  Please visit our blog and read our series of Sports Marketwatch articles for updated information during the week.

Utah State vs. BYU

Both BYU and Utah State have less-than-stellar 1-3 records, but the “public” sees BYU “at least” coming off of a solid showing this past weekend, with a 27-13 loss to #25 Nevada.  The line opened with visiting BYU as -6.5 favorites.  Early betting action has 70% of the bets taking BYU, but the line actually moved towards Utah St., with the line ticking down to BYU -6.  This “reverse line movement” early in the week means that “sharps” got down on Utah State early, overwhelming the public’s backing of BYU.

One cautionary note about this potential play is that the betting action has been fairly light, with just 363 bets for a Friday night game, the only college football game of the evening.  Below, is a snapshot from SportsInsights’ live betting odds, with the number of bets, betting percentages, and opening / current lines .

Team # Bets Spread % Open Current
BYU 363 70% -6.5 -6
Utah State 30% +6.5 +6

Texas vs. Oklahoma

Another game we’re keeping an eye on is the Texas-Oklahoma match-up.  Texas underperformed mightily last weekend, with the previously #21-ranked Texas Longhorns getting thrashed 34-12 in Texas!  This kind of loss doesn’t go unnoticed, and sports fans are taking it out on the Longhorns, with about 75% of the bets taking the Oklahoma Sooners in Saturday’s match-up.

Many fans feel that Texas is no longer the powerhouse that they were just a few years ago – especially after last week’s beat-down by UCLA.  While this may be true, the sports marketplace seems to be over-reacting.  So far, this game is one of the heaviest-bet games for this coming week.  The constant barrage of bets on Oklahoma has pushed the line up from Texas +2 (at CRIS) all the way up to Texas +4.  That is some good value, with a big move right through the key-3 number.

Team # Bets Spread % Open Current
Texas 1599 22% +2 +4
Oklahoma 78% -2 -4

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