NCAAB: The Best and Worst ATS in 2011-2012

With less than a month until March Madness begins, we’ll take a look at the best and worst college basketball teams against the spread for the 2011-2012 season. At this point in the year, the best performing teams ATS (Against The Spread) can be viewed as “overachievers” since they’re continually performing well regardless of the line that sportsbooks are posting. Contrarily, teams towards the bottom of the pack of the ATS standings could be seen as “underachievers” since they consistently fall short of covering the number that sportsbooks make.  The following tables illustrates which teams are profitable for bettors and which teams bettors should think twice about.

Top ATS Performers:

TEAM ATS Record Record ATS FAVE ATS DOG
Manhattan 18-7 18-9 9-3 9-4
North Texas 15-4 14-11 5-1 10-3
Arkansas-Little Rock 16-6 12-14 2-3 14-3
New Mexico 16-5 20-4 16-4 0-1

The top 4 teams against the spread are not exactly household names, but are providing incredible value for bettors.  It’s interesting to note that while each top performer is at least 10 games over .500 in terms of spread, only 2 (New Mexico, Manhattan) are well over .500 in terms of winning percentage.  North Texas and Arkansas-Little Rock are consistently covering the spread, specifically as underdogs, indicating that they have the ability to keep games within the number.

Worst ATS Performers:

TEAM ATS Record Record ATS FAVE ATS DOG
Southern Cal 8-17 6-20 4-7 4-10
Villanova 6-15 11-13 4-7 2-8
Arizona State 6-19 8-17 0-10 6-9
Northern Arizona 4-17-1 5-21 1-3 3-14-1

As for the underachieving teams, the bottom 4 haven’t found success as a favorite or an underdog, and have been punishing bettors who have stayed loyal to these teams.  In particular, Arizona State has been favored to win in 40% of their games but haven’t covered a single one yet.   Villanova, Southern Cal, and Northern Arizona have not fared as poorly as a favorite, but these teams can’t seem to keep the game within the number as an underdog.

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