Thursday’s college basketball slate is headlined by the nation’s top ranked team as Kentucky (28-1, 14-0 SEC) hosts conference rival Georgia (13-15, 4-10 SEC).
On paper this game looks like a complete and utter mismatch. Georgia currently sits in tenth in the Southeastern Conference standings, while struggling to find consistent scoring. The Bulldogs have just two players averaging double figure scoring and rank 299th in the country in points per game at 61.5.
For the Wildcats, there are hardly enough superlatives to describe their talent. Kentucky ranks amongst the nation’s top 20 in points, rebounds and field goal percentage while featuring as many as five first round picks in this year’s NBA draft. They are led by freshman Anthony Davis — the potential defensive and national player of the year and the presumptive number one pick for June’s draft. The unibrowed wonder-kid leads the nation in blocked shots with 4.8 per game while also averaging 14.3 points and 9.8 rebounds on 65.8% shooting
With that in mind, perhaps it is no surprise that Kentucky opened as a 20-point favorite at the market-setting CRIS sportsbook. It also comes as no shock that, according to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, the Wildcats are currently receiving 59% of spread wagers. Although this game isn’t particularly lop-sided, the line has dropped a full point to -19. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money is taking the road Bulldogs.
So far, none of our betting systems have been triggered on the spread in this game however All-Pro members are able to view ll of our College Basketball Betting System Plays by logging-in to their SportsInsights.com account.
Earlier today, SportsInsights president Daniel Fabrizio published another entry in our Bet Sharp series entitled: Kentucky Basketball: Loved by the Public, Hated by Aestheticians. The article details the public’s infatuation with Kentucky and shows how a contrarian bettor can use this to profitably bet against the public.
In fact despite Kentucky’s 28-1 record, bettors simply fading the Wildcats have won at a rate of 59.4% ATS this season. However, the most profitable sweet spot for betting against Kentucky is when they are receiving 60% or more of spread wagers and are favored by 19.1+ points as those games have a winning percentage of 77.8%. Due to this information, this is a game that bears watching as a potential best bet.
The following table shows the breakdown of spread betting percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks: