NCAA Football: UCLA at #1 Oregon

Can the #1 college football team be upset a third week in a row?

The SportsInsights blog and Square Plays have been keying in on the college football action and noted that everyone wants a shot to knock off the “king of the hill.”  After two weeks of upsets that saw then-#1 Alabama lose outright two weeks ago, and #1 Ohio State lose outright this past weekend, Oregon will be wary of guarding their number one ranking in the nation.

In addition, Oregon may be motivated by the fact that the BCS computer currently ranks them #2 (most other polls list Oregon at #1).  On paper, this game looks like a mismatch, based on Oregon’s top-rated offense in the nation.

Oregon has been averaging just under 55 points per game, with just under 600 yards per game and a scary 315 yards rushing per game.  On the other hand, UCLA isn’t just any opponent.  UCLA stands at 3-3, but has played some good teams along the way.

SportsInsights’ NCAAF marketplace indicators show:

  • Earlier in the week, the game was more lopsidedly-bet, with 80% of the bets taking #1 Oregon.
  • The constant barrage of bets inched the line up from its opener of Oregon -20 at CRIS to a generally available Oregon -24 earlier in the week.
  • The line has continued to run up, reaching Oregon -26 at the time of this blog post.
  • With the line rising, the betting has evened out just a bit, with 70% of the bets on Oregon.

Keep an eye on this game for contrarian line value on a nationally-televised game.

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