18
October
NCAA Football Opening Line Report- Week 8
10/18/2011
Every Tuesday, we take a look at the early line movement and college football betting trends for the 15 most heavily bet games, in terms of the number of total bets.
| Team | Betting % | Current | Open | Notes |
| Florida International | 50% | 3.0 | 3.0 | Lone Tuesday night matchup presents great value to the public, with spread bets evenly split down the middle for this Sun Belt showdown. FIU snapped a two-game losing streak last week with a 10-pt win over Akron, but now must take on a Red Wolves squad who is undefeated both at home and in the conference. |
| Arkansas State | 50% | -3.0 | -3.0 | |
| UCLA | 38% | 4.0 | 3.5 | QB Kevin Prince rallied UCLA from an 8-point deficit late in the 4th quarter last week to upset Wash. St. 28-25 on the road. However, despite Arizona having lost 5 in a row, more than 6 out of 10 bets are confident the Wildcats can bounce back and take down the visiting Bruins by five points or more. |
| Arizona | 62% | -4.0 | -3.5 | |
| West Virginia | 71% | -13.5 | -14.0 | The 5-1 Mountaineers invade upstate New York with a #14 overall ranking and the 4th most passing yards in the nation. However, despite being at the bottom of the Big East, the Orangemen boast a 4-2 record and are no push over, especially at home. With the sportsbooks taking a valuable half-point from ‘Cuse, bettors already taking WVU can breath a sigh of relief knowing the Mountaineers only need to cover by a pair of TDs, not 15 points or more. |
| Syracuse | 29% | 13.5 | 14.0 | |
| Maryland | 64% | 17.0 | 17.0 | The unranked ‘Terps played well last week and actually held an 18-pt. lead over then #8 Clemson before self-destructing late and absorbing a 56-45 shootout loss. That being said, more than 6 out of 10 bets are taking Maryland and the points, especially with the Seminoles being maddeningly inconsistent this year. |
| Florida State | 36% | -17.0 | -17.0 | |
| Wake Forest | 90% | -3.0 | -2.0 | The Demon Deacons had their four-game winning streak snapped last week by then-#19 Virginia Tech despite leading by 10 early, while the Blue Devils got torched at home by EJ Manuel and FSU. As a result, the betting public is pounding Wake Forest even with the sportsbooks giving underdog Duke a valuable point. |
| Duke | 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | |
| Arkansas | 93% | -16.0 | -16.5 | One of the most lopsided games of the week, with more than 9 out of 10 bets taking #10 Arkansas in a blow out, which is hard to argue with after Ole Miss looked terrible last week in a 52-7 obliteration by then #2 Alabama. |
| Mississippi | 7% | 16.0 | 16.5 | |
| North Carolina | 13% | 10.5 | 10.0 | The 5-2 Tar Heels played well in a 30-24 loss to Miami (FL) last week, showing heart and rallying behind QB Bryn Renner’s career day to make a game of it late. However, the betting public is not expecting a close game here, with nearly 9 out of 10 bets taking Tajh Boyd and #8 Clemson by 11 or more at home. |
| Clemson | 87% | -10.5 | -10.0 | |
| Texas A&M | 90% | -20.0 | -21.0 | The #19 Aggies have won two in a row and boast the 11th best scoring offense in the nation. On the other side of the coin, the Cyclones are coming off a 52-17 drubbing at the hands of Missouri and are giving up more than 36 points per game. As a result, the betting public is hammering A&M, especially after the sportsbooks took a valuable point away from home dog Iowa State. |
| Iowa State | 10% | 20.0 | 21.0 | |
| Air Force | 29% | 31.0 | 31.5 | Heisman hopeful Kellen Moore and the #5 Broncos have been dealing with gargantuan spreads all season and this week is no different. However, the Falcons own the nation’s third best rushing attack, which Air Force will no doubt lean on to eat the clock and keep the ball out of the Broncos’ hands. |
| Boise State | 71% | -31.0 | -31.5 | |
| Kansas State | 85% | -10.5 | -12.0 | The 2-4 Jayhawks have one of the worst scoring defenses in college football, giving up an average of 49 points per game. With the #15 Wildcats and their punishing running game/dangerous special teams play coming to town, it could be a long day for Kansas and nearly nine out of ten bets agree. |
| Kansas | 15% | 10.5 | 12.0 | |
| Texas Tech | 38% | 28.5 | 28.0 | It’s been a season of blowouts for Bob Stoops and the #2 Sooners, however this week the betting public isn’t overwhelmingly high on another Oklahoma 30-pt. win. We all know how good Bob Stoops’ defense is, but they will be put to the test against Texas Tech, who boasts the 6th best passing attack and 9th best scoring offense in the league. |
| Oklahoma | 62% | -28.5 | -28.0 | |
| Tennessee | 14% | 28.5 | 28.0 | #3 Alabama has the best defense in the country, giving up just 7 points per game, while the Volunteers have failed to score more than 12 points in their last two games. As a result, the betting public is predicting another Crimson Tide shellacking, with nearly 9 out of 10 bets taking Nick Saban’s boys by at least 29. |
| Alabama | 86% | -28.5 | -28.0 | |
| Auburn | 45% | 22.5 | 22.5 | No change in the line here and the public remains seemingly undecided as to who to take. LSU is #1 for a reason, but the Tigers are giving up more than three TDs to #23 Auburn, who are 5-2 and coming off a 17-6 dismissal of Florida. No one is arguing who will win, but the public is pretty evenly divided over how much. |
| LSU | 55% | -22.5 | -22.5 | |
| Washington | 35% | 20.5 | 19.5 | The #6 Cardinal are one of the most balanced teams in college football, with the 5th best offense and 5th best defense in the land. However, the #18 Huskies are 5-1 and winners of three straight. Nevertheless, nearly 7 out of 10 bets are sticking with Andrew Luck and Standford to win by at least 3 TDs at home. |
| Stanford | 65% | -20.5 | -19.5 | |
| Wisconsin | 73% | -7.5 | -7.5 | Most intriguing game of the week right here, with already more than 10K bets placed. Coming off a thrilling 28-14 victory over Denard Robinson and then #11 Michigan last week, the 5-1 Spartans jumped up ten spots in rankings to #13. However, despite owning the 4th best scoring defense in the nation, MSU will be put to the test against Russell Wilson and the high-flying Badgers attack who possess the #1 offense in the country (50.2 PPG). The Spartans may be trending high right now but more than 7 out of 10 bets are sticking with #4 Wisconsin to escape with at least an 8 point win on the road. |
| Michigan State | 27% | 7.5 | 7.5 |
* Betting Percentages reflect Sports Insights’ Spread Betting Trends Data
** Opening and Current Lines from Pinnacle
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