NCAA Football Opening Line Report Week 7

NCAA Football Opening Line Report Week 7

Last week, our Opening Line Report “keyed in” on the Alabama-South Carolina game.  Betting on that game remained heavy throughout the week, with contrarian indicators pointing to South Carolina as a value play.  The result was #1 Alabama’s upset loss.  Our research has shown that heavy betting action — is related to contrarian value.

The opening lines are out for this coming week’s college football games, and what does the early betting action say?  Please visit our blog and read our series of Sports Marketwatch articles for updated information during the week.

Kentucky vs. South Carolina

South Carolina made a big name for themselves with the big upset over #1 Alabama.  Early betting has been heavy on South Carolina as the betting public was impressed with the huge victory.  We note, however, that even with about 80% of the bets on South Carolina, the line has dropped from the opener of visiting S. Carolina -7 at CRIS, down to -6.  This reverse line movement is an indication of early sharps getting down on Kentucky, definitely, a live home dog.

Ohio State vs. Wisconsin

Ohio State is the new #1 team in the nation, after Alabama’s loss last weekend.  As we mentioned last week, being number one gets you heavy media attention — and oftentimes, heavy betting activity from the general betting public.  This game is currently the heaviest-bet game of the week, and about 75% of the bets are taking the new “king of the hill.”  However, the line opened with #1 Ohio State -6 — with reverse line movement decreasing the line to Ohio State -4.5.  Early sharps are getting down on Wisconsin, another live home dog.  Interestingly, the BCS is not as impressed with Ohio State as the other polls, ranking Ohio State at #8 and Wisconsin at #25.