08
November
NCAA Football Opening Line Report – Week 11
11/08/2011
Every Tuesday, we take a look at the early line movement and college football betting trends for the 15 most heavily bet games, in terms of the number of total bets.
| Team | Betting % | Current | Open | Notes |
| Northern Illinois | 79% | -5.0 | -7.0 | Coming off an exhilarating 63-60 shootout victory on the road against Toledo last Tuesday, the 6-3 Huskies entered this MAC showdown favored by a touchdown. With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take two big points away from the home dog Falcons, the betting public is pounding Northern Illinois even more, with nearly eight out of ten spread bets confident the Huskies can escape Perry Stadium with at least a six point victory. |
| Bowling Green | 21% | 5.0 | 7.0 | |
| Western Michigan | 32% | 12.0 | 12.5 | Before losing last week’s epic shootout to Northern Illinois, Toledo had won four games in a row. Meanwhile, the visiting Broncos are coming off a big 45-35 victory over Ball State and possess the 11th best passing offense in the nation in terms of yardage. Nevertheless, the betting public is going with Toledo at home, with nearly seven out of ten spread bets confident the 5-4 Rockets can get back on track and pick up a 13-point win or more in front of their home crowd. |
| Toledo | 68% | -12.0 | -12.5 | |
| Miami (Ohio) | 48% | 12.5 | 12.5 | No line movement yet for this Wednesday night matchup of MAC division rivals. Despite looking like world beaters last week in their 35-3 blowout of Akron, Miami isn’t receiving much love from spread bettors even though they are getting nearly 13 points on the road. Thus far, the betting public is giving the edge to the 5-4 Owls at home, who boast the 4th best scoring defense and 8th best rushing attack in the nation. |
| Temple | 52% | -12.5 | -12.5 | |
| Houston | 88% | -34.0 | -34.0 | Thanks to the stellar play of QB Case Keenum, the undefeated Cougars have risen all the way to the #13 overall ranking in the country, even though they hail from little known Conference USA. Despite one of the largest spreads of the week, the betting public remains overwhelmingly confident in Houston covering against the 2-8 Green Wave, mostly due to the fact that the Houston offense looks unstoppable and Tulane ranks near the bottom in points allowed and overall defense. |
| Tulane | 12% | 34.0 | 34.0 | |
| Virginia Tech | 40% | -1.0 | -1.0 | Great value here for this Thursday night ACC showdown. With such a small spread resulting in a virtual pick-em scenario, the betting public is taking the point and going with the #21 Yellow Jackets at home against the 10th ranked Hokies. |
| Georgia Tech | 60% | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
| South Florida | 36% | -3.5 | -4.0 | Lone Friday night matchup pits two Big East rivals in upstate New York. Despite ‘Cuse dropping two in a row to Louisville and UCONN, the betting public is taking the points and banking on the 5-4 Orangemen to either win straight up or lose by less than three in the Carrier Dome, especially with visiting USF in the midst of a four game losing streak. |
| Syracuse | 64% | 3.5 | 4.0 | |
| Oregon | 51% | 3.5 | 3.5 | By far and away the game of the week, with the public nearly split down the middle as to who to take. If #4 Stanford wants to play for the national championship, they must put away the #7 Ducks at home. Consider this the anti-LSU/’Bama game: a heavyweight matchup of two of the nation’s best, with offense dictating the outcome, not defense. |
| Stanford | 49% | -3.5 | -3.5 | |
| Nebraska | 79% | -3.0 | -2.0 | Another top-tier matchup here, with the #12 Nittany Lions hosting the #19 Cornhuskers at Beaver Stadium. Despite the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to give home dog Penn State an additional point, the betting public is sticking with Nebraska, with nearly eight out of ten spread wagers confident that Bo Pelini’s boys can escape with at least a four point victory against Joe Paterno’s scandal ridden program. |
| Penn State | 21% | 3.0 | 2.0 | |
| Texas A&M | 14% | -4.5 | -4.5 | The 7-2 Wildcats may be coming off a two-game losing streak, however it’s important to note that both losses came against major powerhouses (then #9 Oklahoma and #3 Oklahoma State). With the unranked Aggies coming to Bill Snyder Stadium, the betting public is taking the points and overwhelmingly in favor of the #14 Wildcats either winning straight up or losing by four or less in front of their home crowd. |
| Kansas State | 86% | 4.5 | 4.5 | |
| Texas | 83% | -1.0 | -1.5 | The 6-2 Longhorns have vaulted all the way to #16 in the country following two solid wins over Kansas and in-state rival Texas Tech. In turn, Missouri has lost four of their last six and has struggled all season against Big 12 rivals. As a result, the betting public is greatly in favor of Texas winning by at least two on the road against the 4-5 Tigers. |
| Missouri | 17% | 1.0 | 1.5 | |
| Alabama | 89% | -17.0 | -17.0 | After losing a heartbreaker in overtime against LSU last week, #3 Alabama enters this SEC matchup looking to take out their frustration on 5-4 Mississippi State. Despite the large point spread, the betting public remains glowingly confident in the Tide bouncing back to put a hurt on the Bulldogs, with nearly nine out of ten spread bets expecting Nick Saban’s bunch to escape Davis Wade stadium with at least an 18 point victory. |
| Mississippi State | 11% | 17.0 | 17.0 | |
| Auburn | 71% | 13.5 | 12.5 | After starting the year 0-2, the Bulldogs have won seven straight and find themselves ranked 15h overall and atop the SEC East. However, #20 Auburn is no slouch. With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to give an additional point to the road dog Tigers, slightly more than seven out of ten spread bets are taking the points and banking on Auburn to keep it close at Sanford Stadium. |
| Georgia | 29% | -13.5 | -12.5 | |
| TCU | 32% | 14.5 | 14.0 | The #5 Broncos face their greatest test here since the season opener against Georgia (which they won 35-21). Despite being unranked, the 7-2 Horned Frogs are dangerous on both sides of the ball and possess the 8th best scoring offense in college football. However, with the 8-0 Broncos playing at home and receiving one of their smallest spreads in recent memory, the betting public is sticking with Kellen Moore and co. to keep their national title hopes alive and win by at least 15 in front of their home crowd. |
| Boise State | 68% | -14.5 | -14.0 | |
| Oklahoma State | 70% | -17.0 | -18.0 | With Alabama losing to LSU last week, the 9-0 Cowboys have assumed the #2 overall ranking in the country and have their eyes set on a national title game bid. Although the 5-4 Red Raiders pulled off an epic upset of then #3 Oklahoma earlier in the year, the betting public isn’t expecting a repeat here, with seven out of ten spread bets taking Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon and the heavily favored ‘Boys to win by at least 18. |
| Texas Tech | 30% | 17.0 | 18.0 | |
| Wisconsin | 81% | -27.0 | -27.0 | The #18 Badgers head into this Big Ten showdown as huge favorites. And even though the 2-7 Golden Gophers played hard last week on the road against then #17 Michigan State (lost 31-24), the betting public is pounding Wisconsin, with more than eight out of ten spread bets confident in Russel Wilson engineering a 28 point win or more on the road. |
| Minnesota | 19% | 27.0 | 27.0 |
* Betting Percentages reflect Sports Insights’ Spread Betting Trends Data
** Opening and Current Lines from Pinnacle
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