NCAA Football Marketwatch – Michigan at Ohio State

Welcome to the 2012-13 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record: 2-4

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true line value. Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Michigan at Ohio State (11/24 – 12:00 p.m. ET)

After racking up 567 total yards of offense at home against Illinois, undefeated Ohio State mustered only 236 total yards of offense last week including just 97 passing yards from quarterback Braxton Miller, en route to a 21-14 overtime win over Wisconsin.

Michigan enters this week’s matchup with a record of 8-3 and hungry to build on the 513 yards of total offense from last week’s 42-17 victory over Iowa. Despite losing record-setting quarterback Denard Robinson to injury a few weeks back, junior QB Devin Gardner hasn’t missed a step in Robinson’s absence.  After proving he belongs under center, Coach Brady Hoke had the ability to move Robinson to a hybrid RB/WR position, a move which resulted in little sleep for defensive coordinators across the country. Since taking over under center, Gardner has amassed 834 passing yards, 7 passing TD’s, 6 rushing TD’s and Michigan remains undefeated with the junior QB leading the attack.

Ohio State opened as a 5 point favorite at CRIS and according to our College Football betting trends, is currently receiving a whopping 76% of spread bets and 79% of parlay bets. This heavily lopsided betting moved the line a half-point to Ohio State -5.5 before we saw some sharp buy-back knocking the line down to -4. This is an example of reverse line movement, which indicates sharp money has been coming in on Michigan.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 4.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our seven contributing sportsbooks.

Teams Sprtsbk BetUs Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA CRIS
MICH
OSU
14%
86%
26%
74%
28%
72%
25%
75%
35%
65%
19%
81%
21%
79%

With the public heavily betting favored Ohio State, Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Systems have triggered a couple of plays on Michigan. Two Smart Money moves have been triggered on the Wolverines by renowned sportsbooks including a move by CRIS  on Michigan at 3.5.

The chart below shows the changes in spread betting percentages and line movement since this game opened at Pinnacle.

With that in mind, we encourage you to shop for the best line, fade the public, and take the live dog in this Big Ten showdown.

Game to Watch:
Michigan +4 (CRIS)

It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football action so keep Marketwatch handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

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