Welcome to the 2012-13 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record: 1-4
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true line value. Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Louisville at Syracuse (11/10 – 12:00 p.m. ET)
After combining to score 61 points in its previous two games, undefeated Louisville continued their dominant offensive ways last week, racking up 508 total yards en route to a 45-17 victory over Temple.
Syracuse enters this week’s matchup with a record of 4-5, needing victories in two out of the three remaining games to become bowl eligible. Despite the shaky record, the Orange lead the Big East Conference in passing yards (308.1 YPG), led by a relentless, no-huddle offense. At home inside the Carrier Dome this season, Syracuse is 3-1 with an average margin of victory of 14.0 points with their lone loss being a one point defeat to bowl-bound Northwestern 42-41.
Louisville opened as a 2.5-point favorite at CRIS and, according to our College Football betting trends, is currently receiving a whopping 81% of spread bets and 86% of parlay bets. This heavily lopsided betting moved the line 0.5 points to Louisville -3.0 before we saw some sharp buy-back, knocking the line down to -1.5.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 4.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our seven contributing sportsbooks.
With the public heavily betting favored Louisville, Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Systems have triggered a handful of plays on Syracuse. Four positive Smart Money moves have been triggered on the Orange, including plays at Carib Sports (+6.94 units), JustBet (+3.77 units) and Catalina (+3.14 units), three of our top five sportsbooks for College Football Smart Money moves this season.
The chart below shows the changes in spread betting percentages and line movement since this game opened at CRIS.
With that in mind, we encourage you to shop for the best line, fade the public, and take the home dog in this Big East showdown.
Game to Watch:
It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football action so keep Marketwatch handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates.
Enjoy the games!