NCAA Football Betting Trends – Week 5

The public is starting to bring some of the early lopsided games closer to an even split, but we have still found some good lopsided games for this weekend.

Top lopsided games:

1. Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Iowa State Cyclones

It looks like the smart money is all over Iowa State in this one, but the public has other ideas. The Cyclones opened as a 9-point underdog Sunday, but have since dropped to a 7-point dog with only 18% of spread bets. Our betting systems have hit this game hard with some strong triggering sportsbooks.

Team # Bets Spread Open
Current
Texas Tech 4613 82% -9 -7
Iowa State 18% 9 7

2. TCU Horned Frogs vs. Colorado State Rams

Despite the TCU Horned Frogs being a heavy public favorite in this one, we have seen very little line movement. The line dropped shortly to to -33, but popped back up to -33.5 two days later. With such little line movement on this game, our betting systems have not had a lot to trigger on. We will have to keep an eye on this one and see if there is anymore line movement as we get closer to game time.

Team # Bets Spread Open
Current
TCU 2033 79% -33.5 -33.5
Colorado State 21% 33.5 33.5

3. Ohio State Buckeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini

We have the the Ohio State Buckeyes steadily dropping from an 18-point favorites to a 16.5-point favorite throughout the week. 84% of spread bets are on Ohio State according to our betting trends data, but the sharp money seems to disagree with the public with this kind of line movement. We have had top performing sportsbooks trigger on this game for both Steam Moves and Smart Money plays.

Team # Bets Spread Open Current
Ohio State 11277 84% -18 -16.5
Illinois 16% 18 16.5

4. Georgia Bulldogs vs. Colorado Buffaloes

The public favorite, Georgia Bulldogs, opened as 4-point favorites Sunday. Since then this line has jumped up to -5 and back down to -4.5 early in the week. The public has consistently been backing the Bulldogs in the 80 percentile all week, so we think it is fair to say that public is pushing this line in this game. Our system plays have not seen any strong plays on this game as of posting.

Team # Bets Spread Open Current
Georgia 4236 86% -4 -4.5
Colorado 14% 4 4.5

5. Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

With the line on Iowa opening at -6.5 and currently siting at -7, we have seen a number of Smart Money plays triggered on this game from triggering sportsbooks with positive units won. Though this seems counter-intuitive to the line moving up and the 78% public spread bets on Iowa, each play is triggered by individual line movement not an overall trend.

Team # Bets Spread Open Current
Penn State 7777 22% 6.5 7
Iowa 78% -6.5 -7

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