07
December
NCAA Bowl Games Opening Line Report
12/07/2011
Here is an early look at Sports Insights’ college football betting trends for every NCAA Bowl game. Once these games get a little closer to kickoff, we will revisit the data to see how betting has affected the market, and discuss some possible line value and contrarian opportunities.
| Team | Betting % | Current |
Open | Notes |
| Temple | 53% | -6.5 | -6.5 | The first bowl game of the year has split betting percentages which has caused no line movement thus far. |
| Wyoming | 47% | 6.5 | 6.5 | |
| Utah State | 48% | -3 | -3 | Similar scenario for the second game of the bowl season. |
| Ohio | 52% | 3 | 3 | |
| UL Lafayette | 23% | 5 | 5 | Early action is on San Diego State, but the money is not lopsided enough to move the line yet. |
| San Diego St | 77% | -5 | -5 | |
| Florida Intl | 66% | -4.5 | -4 | 2 out of 3 bets on FIU has moved the line 1/2 a point. |
| Marshall | 34% | 4.5 | 4 | |
| Lousiana Tech | 11% | 11 | 11 | TCU is a big public favorite after winning the Rose Bowl last season and upsetting Boise State earlier this season. |
| TCU | 89% | -11 | -11 | |
| Arizona St | 15% | 14 | 13 | Speaking of Boise, public backing has caused the line to move to the key number of 14 against Arizona State who welcomes June Jones to the sidelines. |
| Boise State | 85% | -14 | -13 | |
| Nevada | 16% | 6 | 6.5 | Some early reverse-line-movement suggests there may be some value in taking Nevada on Christmas Eve. |
| Southern Mississippi | 84% | -6 | -6.5 | |
| North Carolina | 17% | 4 | 4 | Both teams enter with 7-5 records, but Mizzou enters as the favorite and the public is backing them early. |
| Missouri | 83% | -4 | -4 | |
| Western Michigan | 29% | 2.5 | 2.0 | Public backing has moved the line from 2 to 2.5, but it will take a lot more backing to get the number to 3. |
| Purdue | 71% | -2.5 | -2.0 | |
| Louisville | 62% | 2.5 | 1.5 | More money (but not more bets) coming in on NC State has moved the line a full point. |
| NC State | 38% | -2.5 | -1.5 | |
| Toledo | 74% | -3 | -3 | 3 out of 4 bets have action on Toledo, but it hasn’t moved the line off of 3. |
| Air Force | 26% | 3 | 3 | |
| California | 36% | 3 | 4 | Texas’ disappointing season hasn’t prevented most bettors from taking the Longhorns, but the line movement suggests some sharp money on Cal. |
| Texas | 64% | -3 | -4 | |
| Notre Dame | 41% | 3 | 3 | Both teams came into the season overrated, but huge followings have this game as one of the most bet of the bowl season. |
| Florida State | 59% | -3 | -3 | |
| Washington | 17% | 9 | 9 | Heisman favorite RG3 has public bettors jumping all over Baylor as favorites, but the line is holding strong at 9. |
| Baylor | 83% | -9 | -9 | |
| Tulsa | 29% | 2.5 | 2.5 | BYU is getting more public action, but not many bets on this game, so the line hasn’t moved at all. |
| BYU | 71% | -2.5 | -2.5 |
| Team | Betting % | Current |
Open | Notes |
| Rutgers | 39% | -2 | -2 | No line movement yet, but since the game is being played at Yankee Stadium, you can bet it will take well over 3 hours to finish. |
| Iowa State | 61% | 2 | 2 | |
| Wake Forest | 10% | 6.5 | 6.5 | A whopping 90% is taking Mississippi State. The public loves taking SEC teams, as they have performed well in bowl games. |
| Mississippi State | 90% | -6.5 | -6.5 | |
| Iowa | 47% | 14 | 15.5 | Big line movement in this game as some sharp money thinks Iowa can cover. The line has now settleed at the key number of 14. |
| Oklahoma | 53% | -14 | -15.5 | |
| Texas A&M | 54% | -10 | -9.5 | Texas A&M has fired coach Mike Sherman, but is still a ten-point favorite over Northwestern. |
| Northwestern | 46% | 10 | 9.5 | |
| Utah | 34% | 3.5 | 3 | 2 out of 3 bets on Georgia Tech has moved the line 1/2 a point as most bettors think Utah will have a hard time defending the triple option. |
| Georgia Tech | 66% | -3.5 | -3 | |
| UCLA | 27% | 3 | 3 | UCLA made the Pac-12 championship (only because Reggie Bush needed more houses) but bettors aren’t buying in. They would rather lay the 3 with Illinois. |
| Illinois | 73% | -3 | -3 | |
| Cincinnati | 41% | 2.5 | 3 | The line has already moved off of 3, despite a majority of bets taking Vanderbilt as a small favorite. |
| Vanderbilt | 59% | -2.5 | -3 | |
| Virginia | 22% | 1.5 | 1 | Another case where the public will gladly take an SEC team giving up a point or two. |
| Auburn | 78% | -1.5 | -1 | |
| Penn State | 45% | 5 | 6 | Contrasting styles pit Case Keenum against scoring-challenged Penn State who is still dealing with a sex scandal. |
| Houston | 55% | -5 | -6 | |
| Michigan State | 46% | 3.5 | 3 | Both teams made it to their conference championships and lost. Again, it looks like the money is on the SEC team and moved the line off of 3. |
| Georgia | 54% | -3.5 | -3 | |
| Nebraska | 28% | 1 | 1 | See a theme trending? Public is taking another SEC team as Nebraska is coming off a disappointing first season in the Big Ten. |
| South Carolina | 72% | -1 | -1 | |
| Florida | 35% | -2 | -2 | 65% of bettors like the Buckeyes in the Urban Meyer bowl, who will be closely watching unless he wants to spend time with his family or has a health issue that day. |
| Ohio State | 65% | 2 | 2 | |
| Wisconsin | 25% | 6.5 | 5.5 | The Rose Bowl is seeing heavy action on the Ducks and their prolific offense, although Todd Fuhrman of Caesar’s Palace expects some late money on Wisconsin. |
| Oregon | 75% | -6.5 | -5.5 | |
| Stanford | 29% | 3.5 | 3.5 | The public expects Oklahoma State to be highly motivated after missing out on the BCS Championship game. They have no problem laying 3.5 against Andrew Luck and Stanford. |
| Oklahoma State | 71% | -3.5 | -3.5 |
| Team | Betting % | Current |
Open | Notes |
| Michigan | 76% | -2.5 | -2 | Virginia Tech is coming off of an ugly loss to Clemson, and that image is fresh in the minds of bettors, who would rather bet Denard Robinson and the Wolverines. |
| Virginia Tech | 24% | 2.5 | 2 | |
| West Virginia | 10% | 3.5 | 3.5 | One of the most lopsided betting percentages of the bowl season has Clemson taking down Big East Champion West Viriginia in this BCS Bowl (that is not a typo, this really is a BCS bowl). |
| Clemson | 90% | -3.5 | -3.5 | |
| Kansas State | 30% | 7.5 | 8 | Kansas State has been a public favorite for most of the season so it will be interesting to see if people jump at the chance to take the Wildcats getting more than a touchdown. |
| Arkansas | 70% | -7.5 | -8 | |
| SMU | 24% | 5.5 | 6.5 | Another example of reverse line movement as the line has moved toward SMU despite only receiving 24% of bets. |
| Pittsburgh | 76% | -5.5 | -6.5 | |
| Arkansas State | 58% | -1 | -1 | Nearly a pick’em game as what turns out to be the appetizer to the BCS Championship main course. |
| Northern Illinois | 42% | 1 | 1 | |
| Alabama | 35% | -1 | 1.5 | Alabama is now a small favorite after some strong line movement in the early going. We will definitely monitor this game closely to see if there is some buyback on LSU. |
| LSU | 65% | 1 | -1.5 |
* Betting Percentages reflect Sports Insights’ Spread Betting Trends Data
No Comments