NBA Betting Trends: Sacramento vs. Miami

Tonight’s highest bet NBA game is a lopsided match-up on paper, as the Sacramento Kings (10-21) continue their road trip in Miami against the powerhouse Heat (25-7).  Miami comes into the game boasting the league’s best record and has led by at least 20 points in 6 consecutive games (all wins), while Sacramento has lost 5 straight and are coming off a last-second loss to LeBron’s former team, the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Surprisingly, neither team comes into the game with any injury concerns but our Premium and All-Pro members have access to breaking injury alerts.  All members can check in with our NBA injury page to check a player’s status prior to tip-off.

Miami opened as a 14.5 point favorite at CRIS and with good reason: Miami has defeated Sacramento 6 straight times and 14 of the last 15 meetings, with the average margin of victory in Miami nearing 18 points.  The Kings are also a poor road team, winning only 3 of 19 games played away from Sacramento while Miami has a stellar 13-2 record at home.  According to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, the Heat are receiving nearly 70% of all spread bets and moneyline bets.

Despite the majority of public bets coming in on Miami, the line has dropped to 13.5 at most sportsbooks, and even 13 at some books such as Carib Sports and BetMania.  Alternatively, books such as SIA and Caesars are still offering a line of 14, signifying the importance of shopping for the best line.

Though public bettors seem to be pounding the hometown Heat, sharp money is coming in on the Kings and pushing the line down.  Three separate Smart Money moves were triggered on Sacramento at +13.5 including one from Heritage, this year’s leading sportsbook when triggering Smart Money plays.  Sacramento also fits into a key filter of ours mentioned in this season’s Betting Against the Public article, getting 10+ points on the road while receiving less than 35% of bets.

The following table shows the breakdown of spread betting percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks:


Team

# Bets

Sportsbook

BetUS

Carib

WagerWeb

5Dimes

SIA
Kings 5775 25% 25% 18% 32% 56% 19%
Heat 75% 75% 82% 68% 44% 81%

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