NBA Betting Trends: New Orleans Hornets vs. New York Knicks

Unless you have been living under a rock for the past two weeks, you’ve likely hear about the incredible journey of Jeremy Lin. The 6’3″ guard — who had already been cut by the Warriors and Rockets — came off the bench in the Knicks’ victory over the Nets (2/4) recording 25 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists in 35 minutes.  The next game, Lin got his first career start and once again led New York to a victory behind 28 points and 8 assists. All told, the team has gone 7-0 since Lin was added to the rotation (6-1 ATS) with the Harvard alum averaging 24.3 points and 9.5 assists in six starts.

With this Linderella story captivating the nation, the Knicks have quickly become one of the public’s favorite teams. Tonight, the Knicks opened as a 9-point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook and, according to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, are currently receiving 81% of spread wagers and 75% of moneyline bets. This one-sided betting caused the line a full point to -10, though it has since dropped back to 9.5. Worth noting is that the line was released late due to concerns about the health of Carmelo Anthony (doubtful-groin) and Jarrett Jack (questionable-knee) which has caused the number of bets to be lower than expected.

While the hype surrounding Jeremy Lin is providing added value for contrarian bettors, there are other historically profitable betting trends that indicate there is value on New Orleans.  In our 2011-12 Betting Against the Public article we found that visitors receiving less than 25% of spread wagers have a winning percentage of 54.8% over the past eight seasons. Only weeks later we looked at large road dogs and found that between 2/1/10 and 1/11/12, dogs of 10+ points receiving less than 35% of spread wagers had gone 43-20 (+20.89 units).

With such a lopsided betting percentage and a handful of favorable historic trends, keep an eye out on the Hornets as a potential Best Bet.

While almost the entire marketplace is shopping this game at -10, Heritage is currently offering a line of -10.5. We consistently preach the importance of keeping multiple books as it is imperative for you to shop for the best line.

The following table shows the breakdown of spread betting percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks:


Team

# Bets

Sportsbook

BetUS

Carib

WagerWeb

5Dimes

SIA
Hornets 3298 6% 19% 11% 18% 36% 26%
Knicks 94% 81% 89% 82% 64% 74%

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