Welcome to the 2012 edition of MLB Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the MLB betting market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record: 9-7 (+5.99 units)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true line value. Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers – 7:07 PM EST
Our MLB Marketwatch shifts to the American League as the Texas Rangers take on the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Rangers come in with a 68-49 (32-27 Road) record and sit atop the AL West with a healthy 6-game lead. Toronto on the other hand has been ravaged with injuries this year and have lost 14 of their last 18, falling to 55-63 on the season which puts them in the cellar of the always difficult AL East.
Starting for Texas is rookie right-hander Yu Darvish who has found success against Toronto in his 2 starts this year, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 12 IP. Though his strikeout rate is still very high on the year, he has struggled recently going 2-4 with a 6+ ERA in his last 7 starts after beginning the season at 10-4. Countering for the Blue Jays is lefty J.A. Happ who has not found a lot of success after moving to the AL from the Houston Astros. He has been bounced around from the bullpen to starter and owns an 8-10 record with a 5.04 ERA on the year.
As mentioned earlier, the Blue Jays have not been able to overcome a slew of injuries to starters and now another one of their stars is day-to-day. Edwin Encarnacion, who is batting .293 with 30 HR, 80 RBI, and 13 SB, was a late scratch from last night’s starting lineup with some soreness in his wrist and shoulder, and remains questionable for tonight’s game. SportsInsights members have access to injury and lineup alerts, but make sure to check out our Injury Page for any late, breaking news updates prior to game-time.
Texas opened as a -159 favorite at Pinnacle and according to Sports Insights’ MLB Betting Trends, is currently receiving 83% of moneyline wagers, 76% of runline wagers, and 91% of parlay bets. Despite this one-sided betting percentage, the line has only crept up to -163 at Pinnacle and has actually fallen below the Opening line at many books such as Sportsbook.com and BetOnline.com.
Our historical betting data also shows there is terrific value on the Blue Jays tonight. According to our BetLabs software, AL underdogs receiving less than 25% of moneyline wagers have earned +37.45 units just this season alone. This is good for a 14% return on investment (ROI), which once again demonstrates the importance of patience and picking your spots in sports investing.
Game to Watch (9-7, +5.99 units)
At the time of publication, 5Dimes was offering the best price on the Blue Jays at +155 but as a reminder, be sure to shop for the best line before wagering on this game.
Toronto Blue Jays +155 (5Dimes)
Enjoy the games!