What is Johnny Manziel’s Value to Texas A&M’s Week 1 Betting Line?

We’ve previously examined the point-spread value of both elite NFL quarterbacks and NBA superstars to illustrate how injuries and suspensions to key players affect betting line value.

With rumors swirling about Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel facing disciplinary action for profiting from sales of his autograph, sportsbooks are forced to consider how they’ll react if Manziel is suspended.

While this may be frustrating for the books, it’s beneficial to us because we get to see exactly how oddsmakers value key college football quarterbacks. The screenshot below shows how 5Dimes is handling the Johnny Football circus.

 

Johnny-Manziel-Line-Value

 

Assuming Manziel is the starting quarterback for the team’s opener against Rice, the Aggies are listed as 28-point favorites. However, if the 2012 Heisman Trophy winner doesn’t start, the line drops to Texas A&M -22.5, suggesting Manziel’s “line value” is 5.5 points.

Interestingly, our College Football Betting Trends show 67% of spread bets have taken Rice in this game, indicating bettors are concerned enough to be taking the big underdog and the points.

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