How Rare are Early Season NFL Double-Digit Underdogs?
It’s only Week 2 and both the New York Jets (+13 at Oakland Raiders) and the San Francisco 49ers (+14 at Seattle Seahawks) qualify as double-digit underdogs, which is a rare occurrence this early in the season. In fact, the largest Week 2 underdog in our database was Seattle (+13.5) at Pittsburgh back in 2011, meaning one or even both of these games could close are the largest Week 2 underdogs we’ve ever tracked.
With the help of the sports betting analysis software provided at BetLabsSports.com, we looked back to see just how historically common (or uncommon) double-digit underdogs have been by month and whether or not they’ve been profitable against the spread.
| Month | Games with ≥ 10-pt. dogs | % of total games | ATS record | ATS win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 70 | 9.5% | 39-31 | 55.7% |
| October | 88 | 10.4% | 45-43 | 51.1% |
| November | 113 | 13.0% | 65-48 | 57.5% |
| December | 153 | 16.4% | 76-77 | 49.7% |
| January | 23 | 21.7% | 13-10 | 56.5% |
*Data in tabled based on closing lines from Pinnacle.
In the month of September, less than 10% of all NFL games involve point spreads of 10 or more points. As the season progresses, these lopsided matchups become even more common with double-digit spreads making up 16.4% of all games in December and 21.7% in January in a limited number of overall games.
From a high level, an increase in large NFL underdogs does make sense as injuries pile up, non-playoff teams bench veterans to “see what they have” in younger players and teams locked into the postseason rest key players.
Will the Jets and/or the 49ers close as the biggest Week 2 underdog that we’ve ever tracked? Check in at our Free NFL Live Odds page for updated odds and betting percentage data.
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