The Effect of QB Injuries on the Patriots/Bills Week 1 Line

First, rookie EJ Manuel underwent minor surgery to address swelling in his left knee. A week later, Kevin Kolb suffered a devastating concussion that, according to reports, may be career threatening. Now, undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel is expected to start the Bills’ season opener against the Patriots.

With Buffalo’s quarterback situation more cringeworthy than Miley Cyrus’ performance at the VMAs, oddsmakers have been forced to adjust on the fly.

Prior to Manuel’s surgery, New England was listed as a 7-point favorite, according to our Consensus line. In reaction to Manuel’s injury, the line moved to -7.5 and remained there until Kolb’s concussion forced Tuel into the role of starting quarterback.

With Tuel expected to be under center, our Consensus line now shows the Patriots as 10-point favorites, with some market-setting sportsbooks up to -10.5.

The total has also seen movement, with our Consensus number dropping from 51 to 49.5 and other books sitting at an even 49. It’s interesting to note that with no Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd, Manuel or Kolb, this total is still the third highest of any Week 1 NFL game.

At the time of publication, 56% of spread bets have taken the Patriots while 63% of O/U bets are on the under. Be sure to visit our NFL Betting Trends page to track future line movement and betting percentages as we near the kickoff of the 2013 season.

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