Big East Tournament: Examining the Georgetown/Cincinnati Rematch

One of the more interesting games today is the re-match between Cincinnati (22-9, 12-6 Big East) and #13 Georgetown (23-7, 12-6 Big East) in the Big East tournament. These two teams met earlier in the season, when the Bearcats traveled to Georgetown and defeated the then #11 Hoyas 68-64. Despite their history, Cincinnati opened as a 3-point underdog and, according to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, is currently receiving just 32% of spread bets.

The tables below shows the College Basketball Betting Trends, closing lines and final scores from their previous matchup.

Game #1 – 1/9/12

Team Spread % Opening Line Closing Line
Cincinnati 37% +7 +6
Georgetown 63% -7 -6

As you can see, despite receiving a majority of spread bets the line on Georgetown actually dropped a full point. When the line moves against the betting percentages it is referred to as reverse line movement — a strong indicator that sharp money likes the underdog.

The table below shows the line movement and College Basketball Betting Trends for Thursday’s game:

Team Spread % Opening Line Closing Line
Cincinnati 32% +3 +3.5
Georgetown 68% -3 -3.5

This time, public betting has pushed the line from 3 to 3.5 which is what you would typically expect to happen.

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