2017 British Open Odds and Preview

2017 British Open Odds and Preview

The 2017 British Open (also know as the Open Championship) will be the 146th playing of the tournament, and takes place from July 20-23 at the Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England. This is the 10th time that the British Open will be played at this course. The last time was in 2008 when Padraig Harrington successfully defended his title. The course is a par-70 and is 7,173 yards in length.

Here are the past winners and their consensus pre-tournament odds since 2006:

Here are the odds to win the 2017 Open Championship:

Dustin Johnson remains the +1280 favorite despite missing the cut at the US Open and missing The Masters altogether. Brooks Koepka, the 2017 US Open winner, is +3800. Sergio Garcia, the 2017 Masters winner, is +1535. Henrik Stenson, last year’s Open Championship winner, is +2470.

Since January, Jon Rahm has made a significant jump from +8000 to +1405 and is one of the favorites to win. Tommy Fleetwood wasn’t even listed back in January but has very favorable odds at +2105. Koepka also wasn’t listed back in January but his win at the US Open has propelled him into a contender.

We were able to pick the winner of this year’s Masters and US Open, and we’ll try to do the same for the British Open. Here are our best value plays:

Dan McGuire: Hideki Matsuyama (+2250 at Bookmaker)

Matsuyama has really been making a name for himself over the last few years and his odds to win the British Open have hovered around +2000 since January. He has a Top-10 finish in every major including a 6th-place finish at his first Open Championship in 2013, and 2nd-place at this year’s US Open. I like his all-around game despite not being the best putter, and it seems like he can put together a great round at any course. Conditions usually aren’t ideal at this tournament, so his driving accuracy and scrambling will be crucial. Always shop around the market for the best line, and you can grab Matsuyama at +2250 at Bookmaker.

Kramer: Matt Kuchar (+6500 at 5Dimes)

Royal Birkdale is expected to give golfers a rough time this year. This will be the third time the course has hosted The Open since 1998 and since then, it has yielded two of the three worst winning scores compared to par (+3 in 2008, even in 1998) for the tournament. At the moment, rain is forecasted for three of the four days with winds hovering around 20 mph each day. 5Dimes has the winning score set for 275.5 (o-140), which is between -4 and -5.

All this being said, a golfer that can handle the elements and the course style will prevail. I believe that Kuchar provides excellent value at +6500. Unlike at the U.S. Open, Royal Birkdale is not a course where driving distance (one of Kuchar’s weaknesses) will help. He has had a strong season, with four straight top-20 finishes and a fourth place finish at The Masters. If you want to get creative and fade one of the big names, Kuchar is your guy. If you don’t have the stones to take him to win, you could take him to place top-10 at around +600.

Danny Donahue: Justin Thomas (+7000 at 5Dimes)

The last time Royal Birkdale hosted The Open was 2008, when Padraig Harrington took home the Claret Jug. Looking back at Harrington’s 2008 season, I see a lot of similarities to Justin Thomas in 2017. In ‘08, Harrington relied on putting to be successful, ranking 5^th with 1.742 putts per hole. This year Thomas has led the pack in putting, averaging 1.695 putts per hole. As similar as their strengths are, both players also have a similar weakness. In Harrington’s 2008 season he hit 59.37% of fairways of the tee, ranking 154^th on tour. Thomas has hit 56.06% this season, ranking 166^th.

If Harrington’s 2008 victory is any indication of what is and isn’t necessary to win at Royal Birkdale, look for Thomas to make some noise this weekend. Not to mention +7000 is a great price for this year’s leader in top 10 finishes.

5Dimes Props

Hole in one: Yes -125, No -105

Playoff: Yes +285, No -375

Scoring Props:

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