2014 World Cup Odds: Quarterfinals

The Round of 16 has concluded and below are the opening 3-way lines for each quarterfinal matchup from sharp offshore sportsbook 5Dimes:

Germany +148, France +220, Draw +230 (Germany won 1-0)

Brazil -125, Colombia +370, Draw +270 (Brazil won 2-1)

Argentina +117, Belgium +272, Draw +243 (Argentina won 1-0)

Netherlands -221, Costa Rica +555, Draw +286

While these are opening odds, be sure to keep track of all the latest goal-lines, moneylines, totals and betting percentages around the market at our free World Cup page.

We found success using the probabilities from FiveThirtyEight.com to pick teams to advance from the Group Stage (Algeria at +450) and also to win the Group (most notably Costa Rica at +4150). Most recently in the Round of 16, underdogs earned a draw in 5 of the 8 games while covering the goal line in 6 of the 8. We’re now in the quarterfinals and in the table below we converted the bookmakers’ opening odds into implied probabilities for each match, and compared them to the probabilities from FiveThirtyEight.com.

Country
Implied Probablity
FiveThirtyEight Probability
Brazil 71% (-245 odds) 76%
Colombia 33% (+205 odds) 24%
Netherlands 81% (-415 odds) 75%
Costa Rica 23% (+335 odds) 25%
Germany 58% (-140 odds) 56%
France 45% (+120 odds) 44%
Argentina 65% (-185 odds) 72%
Belgium 38% (+160 odds) 28%

We then looked for any disparities and discovered these teams to be slightly undervalued to advance into the semifinals:

Brazil

Costa Rica

Argentina

Do you agree that these teams will advance into the semifinals? Are we destined for an all South American final? Feel free to leave your comments below.

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