The NFL Draft concluded on Saturday, May 10th, and although every expert is quick to slap grades on each teams draft results, nobody will know how successful any team really was until years down the line. That said, oddsmakers are certainly doing some projecting of their own.
Shortly after the conclusion of the draft, Bovada posted early lines for the 2014 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and just less than two weeks after that BetOnline followed suit with odds of their own.
Last season Green Bay Packers RB Eddie Lacy — a second round draft pick — won this prestigious award, which certainly keeps with recent history. Running backs have won the Offensive ROY award 30 times in 44 years with wide receivers and quarterbacks grabbing seven wins apiece.
Although only seven quarterbacks have won the award, most of those wins have come in the past decade. Quarterbacks have won three of the last four awards and six of the last ten (including Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young, Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III — all first round picks).
The table below shows the odds for each player to win the 2014 Offensive Rookie of the Year Award at Bovada, BetOnline, Sportsbook.com and 5Dimes. We will continue to add new sportsbooks as they post their odds.
|Sammy Watkins (WR)||Buffalo Bills||+475||+450||+550||+550||+400||+400|
|Brandin Cooks (WR)||New Orleans Saints||+800||+900||+1000||+1000||+1000||+1000|
|Mike Evans (WR)||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+800||+600||+600||+600||+400||+300|
|Johnny Manziel (QB)||Cleveland Browns||+800||+600||+650||+650||+600||+750|
|Teddy Bridgewater (QB)||Minnesota Vikings||+950||+700||+900||+900||+1200||+1200|
|Bishop Sankey (RB)||Tennessee Titans||+1000||+900||N/A||N/A||+1200||+1500|
|Odell Beckham (WR)||New York Giants||+1000||+1600||+1000||+1000||+1600||+1600|
|Eric Ebron (TE)||Detroit Lions||+1000||+1200||+1000||+1000||+1400||+2000|
|Kelvin Benjamin (WR)||Carolina Panthers||+1500||+1400||+1500||+1500||+1400||+1400|
|Cody Latimer (WR)||Denver Broncos||+1500||+2000||+1500||+1500||+2000||+2000|
|Jordan Matthews (WR)||Philadelphia Eagles||+1500||+1200||+1000||+1000||+1800||+1800|
|Allen Robinson (WR)||Jacksonville Jaguars||+1500||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Carlos Hyde (RB)||San Francisco 49ers||+1800||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Marqise Lee (WR)||Jacksonville Jaguars||+2000||+1800||+2000||+2000||+1400||+1400|
|Jace Amaro (TE)||New York Jets||+2000||+2500||+2000||+2000||+2500||+2000|
|Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE)||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+2000||N/A||+2000||+2000||N/A||N/A|
|Blake Bortles (QB)||Jacksonville Jaguars||+2300||+1200||+1200||+2000||+2000||+2000|
|Troy Niklas (TE)||Arizona Cardinals||+2500||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Derek Carr (QB)||Oakland Raiders||+2500||N/A||N/A||+2000||N/A||N/A|
|Greg Robinson (OT)||St. Louis Rams||+2500||N/A||+2500||+2500||N/A||N/A|
|Jarvis Landry (WR)||Miami Dolphins||+2500||+3300||N/A||N/A||+3300||+3300|
|Paul Richardson (WR)||Seattle Seahawks||+2500||N/A||+2500||+2500||N/A||N/A|
|Devante Adams (WR)||Green Bay Packers||+2500||+2500||+2500||+2500||+2000||+2000|
|Jeremy Hill (RB)||Cincinnati Bengals||+3000||+3300||+3000||+3000||+3300||+2000|
|Tre Mason (RB)||St. Louis Rams||+3500||+2500||+3500||+3500||+3300||+3300|
|Jake Matthews (OT)||Atlanta Falcons||+4000||N/A||+4000||+4000||N/A||N/A|
|Terrance West (RB)||Cleveland Browns||+4000||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Taylor Lewan (OT)||Tennessee Titans||+5000||N/A||+5000||+5000||N/A||N/A|
|Zack Martin (OG)||Dallas Cowboys||+5000||N/A||+5000||+5000||N/A||N/A|
|Ja'Wuan James (OT)||Miami Dolphins||+7500||N/A||+7500||+7500||N/A||N/A|
|Charles Sims (RB)||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||N/A||+5000||N/A||N/A||+3300||+3300|
Last season at Texas A&M Mike Evans was often times overlooked in favor of teammate Johnny Manziel, but the 6’5″ receiver is a potential game-changer for the Buccaneers. Evans tallied 69 catches for 1,394 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2013 despite constant double-teams, and will provide another massive target (alongside Vincent Jackson) for new Bucs QB Josh McCown.
Over the past month there have been a number of players who have seen their odds change dramatically at Bovada. Lions TE Eric Ebron has moved from +2000 to +1200 which falls in line with Ebron’s odds at Sportsbook.com and BetOnline. Two quarterbacks have also seen their odds change dramatically with Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles moving from 20/1 to 12/1 and Minnesota’s Teddy Bridgewater moving from 12/1 to 7/1.
One intriguing rookie of the year candidate is Eagles WR Jordan Matthews. All reports out of training camp have been extremely positive about the former Vanderbilt Commodore, and somebody will need to fill the void left by the departure of Desean Jackson. Perhaps that explains why Matthews has moved from +1800 to +1200 since this prop bet was first posted.
On a strange note, Sportsbook.com does not currently offer odds for Titans running back Bishop Sankey. Tennessee’s second round pick is expected to compete for the starting job, and is actually ranked as a top-20 fantasy running back.
Also noteworthy is the fact that Bills WR Sammy Watkins (the 4th overall pick) has jumped Bucs WR Mike Evans (the 7th overall pick) as the frontrunner to be named the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Past wide receivers to win the award include Percy Harvin (2009), Anquan Boldin (2003), Randy Moss (1998), Carl Pickens (1992), Eddie Brown (1985), Louis Lipps (1984) and Sammy White (1976).
It’s also interesting to note that Sportsbook.com — the most recent book to post Rookie of the Year futures – is offering odds for a number of offensive lineman. Although most football fans know the importance of offensive line play, no lineman has ever been named Offensive Rookie of the Year. Instead, the award is consistently given to the more visible skill position players. WIth that in mind, I would recommend steering clear of Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews, Taylor Lewan, Zack Martin and Ja’Wuan James
When 5Dimes (the only sharp sportsbook of the group) posted their Rookie of the Year odds, we noticed several differences which we found quite interesting. The most notable was that two players — Jacksonville’s Allen Robinson and San Francisco’s Carlos Hyde — were not even listed as options at the other three sportsbooks yet cracked the top 15 at 5Dimes. Although Hyde is currently behind Frank Gore on the depth chart, Gore is 31-years old and could be due for a drop off.
Robinson is a more interesting case. A second round pick out of Penn State, last season the 6’3″ receiver tallied 97 receptions for 1,432 yards while remaining under the radar for many casual fans. Considering the Jaguars dearth of playmakers, Robinson could be heavily targeted as a rookie.
Bovada also posted a number of interesting prop bets which we have listed below. Unfortunately, most of these prop bets have been taken down but it’s still interesting to view their initial projections.
– Will Jadeveon Clowney win the 2014 Defensive Rookie of the Year? “Yes” +200
– Total sacks for Jadeveon Clowney: Over/Under 9
– Will Khalil Mack win the 2014 Defensive Rookie of the Year? “Yes” +400
– Total sacks for Khalil Mack: Over/Under 8
– Total games started by Johnny Manziel: Over/Under 9.5
– Who will start more games in 2014? Teddy Bridgewater -150 or Blake Bortles +110
– Sammy Watkins total receiving yards: Over/Under 750.5 yards
– Sammy Watkins receiving touchdowns: Over/Under 5 TD’s
– Mike Evans total receiving yards: Over/Under 850.5 yards
– Mike Evans receiving touchdowns: Over/Under 5.5 TD’s
– Will Michael Sam be on the Rams 53-man roster for Game 1 of the regular season? “Yes” +150, “No” -200
Interested in 2014 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds? Click here!
Who do you think will be this year’s rookie of the year? Are any players being undervalued by oddsmakers? Which prop bets are offering value? Make sure to leave any thoughts or comments in the section below.