2014 MLB Season Win Totals Comparison

We’re into March Madness just as much as you, but with the number of teams in the tournament dwindling, it’s time to look forward to America’s pastime.  Naturally, every team’s optimistic prior to the season but sportsbooks and prognosticators give us their indications of the teams we can expect to see in the hunt for October.

As we did last year, we’ll compare one sportsbook with one projection. In this case we will use 5Dimes and Baseball Prospectus(BP). The chart below shows the season win totals, projections, and differences for each Major League Baseball team.

 
5Dimes Over/Under
BP Projection
Difference
Diamondbacks 80.5 78 +2.5
Braves 87.5 81 +6.5
Orioles 81.5 78 +3.5
Red Sox 88 89 -1
Cubs 69.5 72 -3.5
White Sox 76.5 76 +0.5
Reds 84.5 81 +3.5
Indians 80.5 77 +3.5
Rockies 76.5 76 +0.5
Tigers 90 85 +5
Astros 62.5 67 -4.5
Royals 82.5 77 +5.5
Angels 87 90 -3
Dodgers 94 100 -6
Marlins 69.5 70 -0.5
Brewers 80 80 0
Twins 70.5 71 -0.5
Mets 74 75 -1
Yankees 87 83 +4
Athletics 88.5 86 +2.5
Phillies 76.5 75 +1.5
Pirates 84.5 78 +6.5
Padres 79 82 -3
Giants 86.5 87 -0.5
Mariners 81 82 -1
Cardinals 91.5 89 +2.5
Rays 88 91 -3
Rangers 87 82 +5
Blue Jays 80.5 81 -0.5
Nationals 89.5 89 +0.5

Let’s first examine the teams with a projection higher than their season win totals(last column has negative numbers). The last word I would use to describe the Dodgers is underrated, but Baseball Prospectus projects them to win six more games than what 5Dimes is currently offering. Perhaps bettors are reluctant to bet the highest total on the board, or maybe they’re just rooting for Los Angeles and their 235-million dollar payroll to under perform.

Other teams with higher projections include the Astros and Cubs. With both teams admittedly going through a long rebuilding process, it’s no surprise that books would shade these lines down as very few bettors would be encouraged to take the over.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, let’s take a look at teams who BP might classify as overrated. The Braves, Pirates, and Royals all top the list. All three teams are expected to at least be in the playoff hunt. The Royals seem to be a trendy pick by many to make the playoffs for the first time since 1985. The Pirates are coming off a season in which they broke their playoff streak, but may be due for some regression. The Braves are expected to be in a season-long fight with the Nationals for the division crown, but recent injuries to their pitching staff may have provided some value for under bettors.

Do you think the Dodgers payroll will lead to a 95+ win season? Do you have the stomach to bet an Astros over? What teams are overrated? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.

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