2014 College Football Betting: Week 1 Recap

College Football Week 1 Betting Recap:

- The season officially kicked off Thursday night and the 4 teams that saw their line move at least -4 points (UL Monroe, Temple, Minnesota, and Akron) all covered by an average of 16 points ATS on the closing line. Even bettors that ended up chasing steam covered with ease.

- Opening night was a solid one for sharp bettors as A&M, Temple, and Rutgers all covered the spread and all won their games outright as moneyline dogs of at least +240 odds.

- During Texas A&M’s dominant performance over South Carolina as a 10-point underdog, Aggies QB Kenny Hill moved to 20:1 during the game to win the Heisman Trophy Award after starting the season with no odds. As soon as Friday morning, he had already moved from 20:1 to 12:1 at Sportsbook.com.

- Other major moves for the 2014-15 Heisman Odds include: (via Sportsbook.com)

  1. USC QB Cody Kessler: N/A to +3000
  2. Florida State WR Rashad Greene: N/A to +3000
  3. UCLA RB/LB Myles Jack: +2800 to +1500
  4. UCLA QB Brett Hundley: +1800 to +1000

- South Carolina’s loss to Texas A&M took them from 23:1 to 65:1 to win the National Championship, while Texas A&M moved from 100:1 to 18:1 (Sportsbook).

- Other major moves on the College Football futures market include: (via Sportsbook.com)

  1. Wisconsin: +3000 to +6500
  2. Nebraska: +11000 to +7500
  3. Clemson: +8000 to +11000
  4. Michigan State: +3000 to +2000

Some of the market impact of college football starting: Average # of bets for an MLB game decreased by 15% from Wednesday to Thursday. On Saturday, there were more bets on the top 3 NCAAF games together (FSU/Oklahoma St, LSU/Wisconsin, and Clemson/UGA) than all 17 MLB games combined.

- Ohio State’s 34-17 win and cover over Navy on Saturday moved Urban Meyer to 31-9 ATS with more than a week to prepare, including season openers:

- Four of Saturday’s most bet games offshore were also the biggest liabilities for Vegas sportsbooks, with books winning big on Oklahoma State and Auburn but losing on Ohio State and Georgia due to public bets.

- Saturday night’s sharp bettors, according to @ToddFuhrman, went 4-3 ATS with Cal, Ohio, WVU, and UVA covering but losing on FAU, Troy, and WMU.

- Via our Bet Labs software: Home teams were 44-33 ATS, Underdogs were 42-42 ATS, and Overs were 40-40 in the opening week of the college football season. Teams ranked in the AP Top 25 went just 12-13 ATS in Week 1.

- Moneyline underdogs of +320 or greater went 0-28 straight up last week and just 10-18 ATS.

- The best conferences ATS were Big 10 (9-5), SEC (8-5), Sun Belt (6-3), Conference USA (8-5). The worst conferences ATS were the MAC (5-8), American Athletic (3-6) and ACC (5-8).

- Last year there were 11 teams that failed to win more than 3 games ATS. Those same teams went 7-3 ATS in Week 1 this year (minus Idaho which was postponed). That figures also includes Cal/Northwestern who met this season after combining to go 5-19 ATS in 2013. 

- Biggest Week 2 Line Moves: (via Pinnacle)
  1. South Alabama: pick ‘em to -3 at Kent State
  2. South Carolina: -13.5 to -16.5 vs. East Carolina
  3. Washington State: pick ‘em to -2.5 at Nevada
  4. Maryland: -10 to -12.5 at South Florida
- Key games heading into Week 2:
  1. Stanford (-3.5) currently receiving 59% of spread bets vs. USC
  2. Oregon (-13) currently receiving 30% of spread bets vs. Michigan State
  3. Notre Dame (-4.5) currently receiving 29% of spread bets vs. Michigan.
  4. Texas (-4.5) currently receiving 48% of spread bets vs. BYU
  5. Ohio State (-11) currently receiving 32% of spread bets vs. Virginia Tech

 - Key injuries to monitor include:

- Getting ready for ESPN’s College Gameday? According to the oddsmakers over at 5Dimes, Lee Corso is expected to pick Oregon (-1050) to defeat Michigan State (+550).

Check out all of the latest Week 2 College Football betting lines and public betting trends at our new free NCAAF live odds page.

Our College Football Best Bets have started the season with a nice 7-3 ATS (+3.3 units) Week 1 performance. With five NFL plays already released for Week 1 and another 11 NCAAF picks released, make sure to sign up for our Early Bird Special to save 40% on all of our Best Bet picks, Bet Signals, Real-Time Odds and much more.

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