2012 Stanley Cup Preview – LA Kings vs. NJ Devils

The 2012 NHL Stanley Cup Final is set to begin on Wednesday, May 30 as the New Jersey Devils will host the Los Angeles Kings in Game 1.  The series price via Sportsbook.com currently has the Kings -150/Devils +130 even though New Jersey will have home-ice advantage  This is primarily because the Kings have been impressive all postseason in knocking off Vancouver in 5, St. Louis in 4, and Phoenix in 5.

The current line for Game 1 via Pinnacle has the Kings as a slight favorite of -121 after opening at -115.  The tables below show recent trends and betting systems using our new Bet Labs product:

*All Units Won/Lost data is derived from Pinnacle’s Opening and Closing Lines

W-L Win % Units Won/Lost ROI
Devils in 2011-12 including Playoffs 60-40 60.0% +20.37 units 20.4%
Devils in 2011-12 including Playoffs as Underdog 30-24 55.6% +13.20 units 24.4%

 

W-L Win % Units Won/Lost ROI
Kings in 2011-12 including Playoffs 52-44 54.2% +2.91 units 3.0%
Kings in 2011-12 including Playoffs as Favorites 37-31 54.4% -3.29 units -4.8%

 

W-L Win % Units Won/Lost ROI
Road Favorites in Playoffs since 2007 61-31 66.3% +15.14 units 16.5%
Road Favorites in Playoffs since 2011 13-5 72.2% +6.01 units 33.4%

 

W-L Win % Units Won/Lost ROI
Road Underdogs in Playoffs since 2007
receiving 30% or fewer of ML bets
24-30 44.4% +15.76 units 29.2%
Road Underdogs in Playoffs since 2011
receiving 30% or fewer of ML bets
5-4 55.6% +4.34 units 48.2%

 

W-L Win % Units Won/Lost ROI
Teams in Playoffs since 2007
receiving 30% or fewer of ML bets
38-50 43.2% +11.06 units 12.6%
Teams in Playoffs since 2011
receiving 30% or fewer of ML bets
7-6 53.8% +4.58 units 35.2%

 

  • Betting every Devils game this year would net a profit of +20.37 units
  • The Kings have earned a profit as an underdog this year but are down -3.19 units as the favorite
  • Unlike the regular season, Road Favorites provide good value in the Playoffs, up over 15 units since 2007
  • Road Dogs getting 30% or fewer of bets are up over 15 units since 2007
  • All Teams in the Playoffs getting 30% or fewer of bets are up over 11 units since 2007

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