Look for Value
The key to successful sports
betting is obtaining value on every bet. Value essentiallycomes
down to getting better than the "true" odds on a team. For
example, if your objective assessment of the game suggest that
the underdog should be receiving 3.5pts but is in fact receiving
6.5pts, then that is a value-betting proposition. This is
sometimes called an "overlay".
Value betting means betting
when you regard the risk: reward ration as being heavily in your
favor. And that can often mean betting the underdog. Too many
bettors are frightened to back underdogs, but remember that a
relatively poor team receiving a large pointspread does not
actually have to win the game, just lose by less than the points
it is receiving. And they frequently do because they better team
is only interested in winning and reducing the risk of injury,
not covering the pointspread.
Oddsmakers are often in a
position where they have to issue lines/odds on a large number
of games, so their resources are stretched and they are
vulnerable. Even with their considerable expertise , they are by
no means infallible, so be on the lookout for the so called
"soft sports" where you consider that the oddsmaker has failed
to judge the game or event properly or ignored a potentially key
factor in the outcome.
Pay particular attention to
key number in Football, especially 3,4,6,7, and 10, where minor
changes in the spread have major implications for value. Even
with the 2pt conversion option, changing a line from 6 to 7.5 is
a major move; If you liked the under at +6, then you are getting
tremendous value at +7.5.In Football, more games are decided by
a margin or 3points than by any other margin. Therefore, a point
spread of 2.5 to 3.5 is a critical to the smart bettor.
Go Against The Public
Certain teams traditionally
have a strong public following. It might be last year's champion
or a team with a high profile media superstar. Some teams, like
the San Francisco 49ers, the Chicago Bulls, Manchester United,
and the New York Yankees have captured the public's imagination
and have millions of fans.
The best-value bets can often
be found by going against these teams because the oddsmakers
adjust theline to reflect the expected weight of public money;
so that the underdog is often quested at better odds or receives
a larger pointspread than is warranted.
Do Not Overreact to the
Last Game
A team or player's current
form should be a major consideration in your analysis. But do
not over-emphasize the result of their last game of performance,
especially high scoring games and "blow outs". The score may not
accurately reflex the performance of quality of either the
winning or losing teams.